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Four Key Issues in the Week Ahead

July 05, 2015
Polls indicate that the outcome of the Greek referendum is too close to call. However, the results of the Scottish Referendum and the British national election are fresh our memories, and the polls there provided little guidance.  While there is much uncertainty, there are a few things look clear.
Regardless of the outcome of the referendum, discus…
Four Key Issues in the Week Ahead Four Key Issues in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2015 Rating: 5
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A Look at the Condition of Prices that will Absorb the Greek Referendum Results A Look at the Condition of Prices that will Absorb the Greek Referendum Results Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2015 Rating: 5
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Four Developments to Note while the US is on Holiday

July 03, 2015
US markets are closed for the celebration of its Independence Day. There are four developments to note today.  
1.  FX Price Action: The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies.  The notable exception is the Australian dollar.  It has been sold to new six-year lows to near $0.7500.  Recall that is the level that RBA Governo…
Four Developments to Note while the US is on Holiday Four Developments to Note while the US is on Holiday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

July 02, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) Polls show that the favourable evaluation of the Brazilian government fell to 9%, the lowest reading since 1989. 2) Ukraine and its creditors have agreed to resume talks 3) Credit Bank of Moscow’s IPO is the biggest in Russia since February of last year 4) We are seeing more policy reactions to the …
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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US Employment Data Disappoints, but Recovery Remains Intact

July 02, 2015
The US employment data disappointed. The headline grain of 223k was only slightly less than expected, but the job growth in April and May was revised lower by 60k (almost evenly divided).  The most disappointing part of the report was the decline in the participation rate new cyclical low of 62.6% from 62.9% and the lack of increase in the monthly…
US Employment Data Disappoints, but Recovery Remains Intact US Employment Data Disappoints, but Recovery Remains Intact Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Greece Woes Deepen, Focus on US Jobs

July 02, 2015
The official creditors have made it clear that there is no scope to resume negotiations with Greece until after the referendum. There have been several polls published.  They generally appear to show a shift toward the government's position to reject the creditors’ demands (for a program that no longer exists) since the capital controls began …
Greece Woes Deepen, Focus on US Jobs Greece Woes Deepen, Focus on US Jobs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Dollar Index and the Real TWI

July 01, 2015
This Great Graphic, constructed on Bloomberg, shows two time series.  The white line shows the Federal Reserve's real broad trade weighted index.  It is updated on a monthly basis.  It edged up in June after falling in April and May. Of note, the real broad trade weighted dollar averagewas higher in Q2 (93.69) than in Q1 (93.42).  
The   yellow…
Great Graphic: The Dollar Index and the Real TWI Great Graphic:  The Dollar Index and the Real TWI Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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Anniversary of W.I.T.

July 01, 2015
Three years ago this month, ECB President Draghi issued his now-famous pledge to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro.    Indeed, it has done its part.  The ECB has a negative deposit rate, something that even with a protracted fight against deflation, the Bank of Japan never tried.  The Federal Reserve is said to have considered it b…
Anniversary of W.I.T. Anniversary of W.I.T. Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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Deadlines Come and Go, Markets Endure

July 01, 2015
Greece has formally fallen into arrears with the IMF, and the second aid package has expired.  The markets have taken it in stride.  The euro was briefly pushed below $1.1100 but snapped back quickly amid reports that Greece is willing to accept most of creditors conditions.   The euro bounced almost three-quarters of a cent on the headlines, but …
Deadlines Come and Go, Markets Endure Deadlines Come and Go, Markets Endure Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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