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Getting Blood from a Turnip: Potential Greek Deal Overshadows ECB Meeting Getting Blood from a Turnip:  Potential Greek Deal Overshadows ECB Meeting Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Another Divergence

June 02, 2015
The bull case for the US dollar that we have presented is based on an underlying divergence.  It is true that in any one quarter, the eurozone and/or Japan can grow faster than the US.  The divergence we have stressed is the trajectory of monetary policy.  Simply put, the Federal Reserve has stopped easing policy.  It is looking for an opportunity…
Great Graphic: Another Divergence Great Graphic:  Another Divergence Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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EM Equity Allocation Model Q2 Update

June 02, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
KEY POINTS
· * Given the likelihood of Fed tightening ahead, we remain cautious on EM Equities as we move closer to Q3 2015
* Measures of foreign investment inflows to EM slowed in May
· * Since our last quarterly model update on April 8, our proprietary EM equity portfolio has fallen -0.8%, ou…
EM Equity Allocation Model Q2 Update EM Equity Allocation Model Q2 Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Real Broad Trade Weighted Dollar

June 02, 2015
Businesses pay nominal bilateral exchange rates.   Those are what we trade.  However, to understand the impact on the economy, it is best adjust for inflation and use a broad basket of currencies that match a country's trading partners.
The Federal Reserve tracks such an index for the dollar.  At the end of every month, it calculates the real b…
Great Graphic: Real Broad Trade Weighted Dollar Great Graphic:  Real Broad Trade Weighted Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Lower as Turn Around Tuesday Unfolds

June 02, 2015
Sterling's seven day losing streak appears to be ending today with the help of a stronger than expected construction PMI.   The Nikkei's 12-day really streak ended today with a minor loss, helped by profit-taking in the financials and energy space.  More domestic sectors, like utilities, healthcare and consumer stables still rallied.  News…
Dollar Lower as Turn Around Tuesday Unfolds Dollar Lower as Turn Around Tuesday Unfolds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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New Flash Point between Hong Kong and China

June 01, 2015
The Occupy Hong Kong Movement was sparked by Beijing's announcement of rules for the popular selection of Hong Kong's Chief Executive in 2017.   Essentially Beijing would appoint a 1200-person committee that would vet the candidates and present 2-3 that would be on a ballot for Hong Kong citizens to chose among. 
This bristles against the …
New Flash Point between Hong Kong and China New Flash Point between Hong Kong and China Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

June 01, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
EM assets are starting the week off on a soft note, picking up where we left off last week.  The usual culprits can be cited:  firmer US dollar, softer commodity prices, global growth slowing, and Fed tightening concerns.  However, the recent EM pattern of weaker currencies and firmer equities has pa…
Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview:  Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains Firm at Start of June

June 01, 2015
The US dollar has begun the new week on firm footing. It remains, though, largely in the ranges seen in the second half of last week. Sterling is the notable exception.  except sterling.  Last week's sharp downside momentum has continued, pushing the sterling to $1.52.  The softer than expected manufacturing PMI gave the bears cover, even thou…
Dollar Remains Firm at Start of June Dollar Remains Firm at Start of June Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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