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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

May 22, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) Petrobras reported stronger than expected Q1 earnings 2) A Colombian court ordered a delay to the sale of the government’s 57.6% stake in hydropower company Isagen 3) The Mexican government cut its growth forecast for the year by a full percentage point 4) Bank Indonesia kept rates steady at 7…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 22, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Heavy into the Weekend

May 22, 2015
The US dollar had begun the week on a firm note, but those gains have been trimmed in the second half of the week. The confirmation that a June hike was highly unlikely coupled with some softer US data took a toll.  The UK's surprisingly strong retail sales report lifted sterling.  The greenback had tested the upper end of its range against th…
Dollar Heavy into the Weekend Dollar Heavy into the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 22, 2015 Rating: 5
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Busy UK Shoppers Lift Sterling, Spurs Profit-Taking After Dollar Bounce

May 21, 2015
The US Dollar Index advanced in the first three days of the week but is under some pressure today. The FOMC minutes confirmed what the market had already known, which is a rate hike next month is highly unlikely. 
Meanwhile outside of the UK's strong retail sales report, most of the data today has disappointed.These include the flash PMIs in bo…
Busy UK Shoppers Lift Sterling, Spurs Profit-Taking After Dollar Bounce Busy UK Shoppers Lift Sterling,  Spurs Profit-Taking After Dollar Bounce Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 21, 2015 Rating: 5
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Divergent Impulses Spur Dollar's Come Back

May 20, 2015
The US dollar extended its recent gains against the major currencies.  The euro returned to its break out level near $1.1060 after approaching $1.15 at the end of last week.  In three sessions it has surrendered more than 38% of its bounce off the low set in mid-March.  The 50% retracement comes in just below $1.10.  
The dollar also traded above J…
Divergent Impulses Spur Dollar's Come Back Divergent Impulses Spur Dollar's Come Back Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 20, 2015 Rating: 5
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ABC's of the AIIB

May 19, 2015
The 57 founding members of the China-sponsored Asian Investment Bank will meet on May 20 in Singapore.   Many countries rushed to join the new development bank before the March 31 deadline even though key rules had not been decided.  Even the size of the new institution had not it officially set.
Chinese initiatives often meet several of objective…
ABC's of the AIIB ABC's of the AIIB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 19, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Lifted by ECB Front Loading QE and UK Slipping into Deflation

May 19, 2015
The US dollar is broadly higher as yesterday's gains are extended. The driving force is not so much a shift in perceptions of the US economy, though the San Francisco Fed that claimed seasonal adjustment quirks are behind the repeated weakness in Q1 GDP helped market sentiment yesterday in North America.  
Rather the euro has been weighed down …
Dollar Lifted by ECB Front Loading QE and UK Slipping into Deflation Dollar Lifted by ECB Front Loading QE and UK Slipping into Deflation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 19, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead

May 18, 2015
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM assets are starting off the week under some mild pressure. This comes after last week’s rally, which was fed by the positive combination of stabilizing commodity prices, continued dollar softness, and falling US yields. Those impulses are likely to continue this week. With little on the calendar this week in t…
Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead Emerging Markets Preview:  The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 18, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Firmer, but Vulnerable

May 18, 2015
The US dollar, which traded heavily throughout last week, turned better bid today. However, with no significant data, and the renewed pressure on European bonds, the greenback's firmer tone looks fragile.  
Core European bond yields are 3-4 bp higher, including German bunds. Peripheral bonds yields are up 8-11 bp, with Greek 10-year yields up 2…
Dollar Firmer, but Vulnerable Dollar Firmer, but Vulnerable Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 18, 2015 Rating: 5
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What will Drive the Dollar in the Week Ahead?

May 17, 2015
The dollar bullish divergence story appears to have hit a wall. With US Q1 GDP likely to have contracted by around 1% at an annualized rate in Q1 and Q2 off to a weak start, whispers of a recession can be heard not only in the blogosphere but in the halls of the House of Finance.  The opportunity that the Fed is looking for to hike rates may not m…
What will Drive the Dollar in the Week Ahead? What will Drive the Dollar in the Week Ahead? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 17, 2015 Rating: 5
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