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Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead

January 05, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

EM has started the year by extending many of the trends present towards the end of last year. The ruble is on the defensive along with Brazilian assets, while the Shanghai Composite continues to rally. The continued fall in oil prices will also ensure that the trading dynamics of importers vs. expor…
Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: EU Budget Balance Forecasts for 2015

January 05, 2015
This Great Graphic was tweeted by Ian Bremmer.  It shows the budget balances projected for 2015.  Spain, France and UK project the highest shortfalls.  Given the growth that the UK and Spain reported for 2014 and project for 2015 on a cyclical basis, the size of those shortfalls are particularly problematic. 

Greece, Germany and Estonia project the…
Great Graphic: EU Budget Balance Forecasts for 2015 Great Graphic: EU Budget Balance Forecasts for 2015 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2015 Rating: 5
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Draghi and Merkel Drive Euro Lower

January 05, 2015
In very early Asia, participants responded to Draghi's sovereign bond buying hints, and Merkel's seeming willingness to let Greece leave EMU by send the euro to a low of $1.1865, according to Bloomberg.  The thin conditions exacerbated the move, but the single currency has not been able to resurface above the $1.1980 area since.  
Softer th…
Draghi and Merkel Drive Euro Lower Draghi and Merkel Drive Euro Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2015 Rating: 5
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Four Forces Shaping the Investment Climate

January 04, 2015
The investment climate is being shaped by four forces:
1.  De-synchronized business cycle with the US ahead of the pack 2.  The prospects of sovereign bond purchases by the ECB, amid political uncertainty sparked by Geece's snap election 3.  The continued drop in energy prices is a stimuluative writ large but poses challenges for oil producers an…
Four Forces Shaping the Investment Climate Four Forces Shaping the Investment Climate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 04, 2015 Rating: 5
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Fundamental and Technical Factors Point to Further Dollar Gains

January 03, 2015
The US dollar is poised to extend last year's rally.    The US economy is at least several quarters ahead of most of the other major economies.    Barring a major surprise, the Federal Reserve will likely hike rates around the middle of the year, while the economies in Europe and Japan need more stimulus.  
In the week ahead, investors will lik…
Fundamental and Technical Factors Point to Further Dollar Gains Fundamental and Technical Factors Point to Further Dollar Gains Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 03, 2015 Rating: 5
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Will Greece be in EMU at the end of 2015?

January 02, 2015
The Greek political drama is overshadowing the Russian crisis and the plunge in the price of oil.  A review of old and new media coverage suggests that many observers are repeating the same mistake they made 2-3 years ago. We were one of the few analysts that did not expect Greece to leave the monetary union then, and we expect it to remain in the…
Will Greece be in EMU at the end of 2015? Will Greece be in EMU at the end of 2015? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Soars on Divergence

January 02, 2015
The US dollar is beginning the New Year will strong gains against both major and emerging market currencies.   The divergence between the US and the other high income countries has been underscored by comments from the BOJ's Kuroda and ECB's Draghi.  The former discussed other tools that can be brought to bear to achieve the BOJ's 2% i…
Dollar Soars on Divergence Dollar Soars on Divergence Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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