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Markets Turn Quiet, Consolidate

December 24, 2014
The US dollar’s gains scored yesterday in the wake of a strong upward revision in Q3 GDP to 5% have been pared slightly today in extremely thin market conditions.  The euro was sold to a new 28-month low (~$1.2165) yesterday and is struggling to re-establish a foothold above $1.22. 
Encouraged by the US GDP, the backing up of US rates and a 1.25% r…
Markets Turn Quiet, Consolidate Markets Turn Quiet, Consolidate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 24, 2014 Rating: 5
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Russia, Oil, China and the Dollar

December 23, 2014
As the year winds down, a Gordian knot tying Russia, oil prices and China together is receiving a great deal of attention.  Let's see if we can unravel some of the confusing twists and turns.  
We turn first to China's offer of assistance to Russia.  The idea that Russia could activate its CNY150 bln (~$24 bln) currency swap line with China…
Russia, Oil, China and the Dollar Russia, Oil, China and the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2014 Rating: 5
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Holiday Mood Grips Markets

December 23, 2014
The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro is pinned in a quarter cent range above $1.2220. The dollar is higher against the yen for the fifth consecutive session. It may be the first session since December 8 that the dollar spend the entire session above JPY120. 
The Australian dollar and sterling are the weakest of the majors. The former is we…
Holiday Mood Grips Markets Holiday Mood Grips Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Oil, Metals, and China's Mfg PMI

December 22, 2014
These two Great Graphics were created on Bloomberg. The first shows the price of crude oil (white line) and the JOC-ECRI index industrial metals index (yellow line).  The metals included are steel, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin and nickel.  
The two times series were indexed to levels seen twelve months ago.   They both moved largely sides for…
Great Graphic: Oil, Metals, and China's Mfg PMI Great Graphic: Oil, Metals, and China's Mfg PMI Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

December 22, 2014
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM currencies have stabilized after the FOMC meeting last week.  Yet the Fed clearly signaled that it remains on track to start hiking rates around mid-2015.  While Yellen’s guidance was taken as dovish (tightening won’t be at a predictable, “measured” pace), we still feel the looming Fed tightening cycle remains ne…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar Consolidates Gains, Oil Steadies, Rouble Recovers

December 22, 2014
The holiday-shortened week has begun.  Some causes of consternation have eased.  Oil prices are firmer after the pre-weekend recovery.  The Russian rouble, where the focus has been greater than the exposure, has continued to recover following signs that China may be willing to offer it more assistance.  Its up 5.4% to bring its two-day recovery to…
Dollar Consolidates Gains, Oil Steadies, Rouble Recovers Dollar Consolidates Gains, Oil Steadies, Rouble Recovers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2014 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead in Five Points

December 21, 2014
Shaping the holiday week, we identify five general points that we expect to underpin the US dollar and equities.
1. Last week's events (FOMC and SNB) reinvigorated the divergence thesis that was questioned during what appears to have been a technical correction. US data in the days ahead will reinforce the perception of US economic strength.…
The Week Ahead in Five Points The Week Ahead in Five Points Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 21, 2014 Rating: 5
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