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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

November 06, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) The won-yen story is back after Vice Finance Minister Hwan stated that authorities will manage won moves in line with the yen
2) Poland unexpectedly paused its easing cycle; separately, Poland wants to reduce the size of its Monetary Policy Council from 10 to 7
3) The Russian central bank changed i…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2014 Rating: 5
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Euro Sinks as Draghi Sticks to Script

November 06, 2014
Contrary to the leaks, ECB President Draghi stuck to his intent that the ECB's balance sheet move back toward the 2012 levels.  He clearly confirmed that this was unanimous.  This was the first time, such a reference was made in the introductory remarks, which gives it more gravitas.  
Draghi also indicated that the staff has been instructed to…
Euro Sinks as Draghi Sticks to Script Euro Sinks as Draghi Sticks to Script Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar Mixed Ahead of ECB

November 06, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
The dollar is mixed on the day, but moves have been modest ahead of the ECB meeting. The Euro recovered to trade just above the $1.25 area and sterling is hovering just around $1.5950. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are outperforming at $0.8610 and $0.7740, respectively. 
The dollar briefly …
Dollar Mixed Ahead of ECB Dollar Mixed Ahead of ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2014 Rating: 5
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ECB: Everything Can't Be

November 05, 2014
Three companions enjoyed a midday meal.  The first says,"I'm satiated.  The food and drink have done the trick.   I'm ready to return to work."  The second says he still has room for a dessert to top off the wonderful meal. They look to the third, who doesn't know quite what to do.  She did not eat much to begin and needs her…
ECB: Everything Can't Be ECB:  Everything Can't Be Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 05, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US Equity Ownership

November 04, 2014
The Wall Street Journal's Josh Zumbrun posted these two Great Graphics on equity ownership in the US.Economists often see the rise in equity prices having two important channels of economic impact.  The first is it simply lowers the price of capital for companies. It is straight forward enough, though not all companies are publicly traded.  Ri…
Great Graphic: US Equity Ownership Great Graphic:  US Equity Ownership Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 04, 2014 Rating: 5
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Oil Dynamics

November 04, 2014
The drop in oil prices since mid-year has been a significant development even though the broader ramifications for world growth, prices and policy are only being worked out.    Just as the inflation predicated in the US as a consequence of the Fed's serial QE has not materialized, so too the forecasts of a forever higher for oil prices as ever…
Oil Dynamics Oil Dynamics Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 04, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

November 03, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Overall, the investment climate for EM is likely to remain negative in this strong dollar environment. Weaker than expected official China PMI over the weekend didn't help matters. Indeed, most of the Asian PMI readings out already came in weaker than expected, with Korea and Indonesia coming i…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets:  Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Widening Divergence Aids Dollar, but No Currency War

November 02, 2014
There are three elements to the investment climate: The divergence between the US on one hand and Europe and Japan on the other, the drop in many commodity prices, including oil, and the slowing of the Chinese economy.  
Last week, the divergence was driven home by policy makers. The contrast could not be starker. The FOMC ended QE, and seemingly b…
Widening Divergence Aids Dollar, but No Currency War Widening Divergence Aids Dollar, but No Currency War Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Next Leg Up for the Dollar

November 01, 2014
The US dollar had a good week to close out October. It was bolstered to new highs against the euro and yen.  It is driven by both positive developments in the US and negative developments in Europe and Japan.  
There were two highlights from the US. First, the FOMC statement was read with a hawkish tilt. The decline in inflation expectations seemed…
Next Leg Up for the Dollar Next Leg Up for the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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