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Sentiment Healing, but Remains Spooked

October 23, 2014
Last week's drama was not the beginning of something as the pessimists and cynics would have it.  Our inclination that it was the end of something--that the pendulum had swung unreasonably far unreasonably quickly has is panning out   
Equities have trended higher.  The S&P 500 was turned back yesterday after it had retraced 61.8% of the lo…
Sentiment Healing, but Remains Spooked Sentiment Healing, but Remains Spooked Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 23, 2014 Rating: 5
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Preliminary Thoughts about the ECB and Corporate Bonds

October 22, 2014
The targeted long-term repo operations had not even been launched when the ECB announced its intention to buy asset-backed securities and covered bonds.  It then began to buy covered bonds before the conclusion of the Asset Quality Review and bank stress tests.
This insistence on putting the proverbial cart before the horse fosters an environment t…
Preliminary Thoughts about the ECB and Corporate Bonds Preliminary Thoughts about the  ECB and Corporate Bonds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 22, 2014 Rating: 5
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The Ultimate Carry Trade: US Banks Buying Treasuries

October 21, 2014
The drop in US bond yields is perhaps the biggest surprise for investors this year.  The gradual decline in Federal Reserve buying, faster growth, and the prospects for a rate hike in 2015 were expected to lift bond yields.
Who would buy US Treasuries when the largest buyer was pulling back, and yields would inevitably rise? Moreover, with China…
The Ultimate Carry Trade: US Banks Buying Treasuries The Ultimate Carry Trade:  US Banks Buying Treasuries Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 21, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Where is the Secular Stagnation?

October 20, 2014
This Great Graphic shows the GDP of several major economies measured in US dollars.    It was posted in the Wilson Quarterly, and draws from World Bank data.  The US economy is on a parallel but somewhat lower path than it was on through the 90s and noughts.  The US economy is creating more goods and services than ever.  
China's nominal growth…
Great Graphic: Where is the Secular Stagnation? Great Graphic: Where is the Secular Stagnation? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 20, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead

October 20, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr.Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
Emerging market assets have started off the week mixed, with few clear signals to follow. The major currencies also appear directionless at the moment, though eurozone flash PMIs on Thursday could help put the spotlight back on weakness there.
As long as the dollar strengthening trend does not resume …
Emerging Market Preview: The Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview:  The Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 20, 2014 Rating: 5
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