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Near-Term Dollar Outlook

September 27, 2014
The dollar is staging an advance of a duration and magnitude that has not been seen for several years. The pace has taken many unaware, even though dollar bulls have been repeatedly frustrated. For several quarters, investors, analysts and reporters struggled to explain why the euro in particular was seemingly inexplicably strong, and now that is …
Near-Term Dollar Outlook Near-Term Dollar Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Real Broad Trade Weighted US Dollar Index

September 26, 2014
This Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the Federal Reserve's real broad trade weighted measure of the dollar.   It clearly shows that the dollar declined between 2000-2010, with the brief, but sharp rally in late 2008 and into 2009.  
This broad measure of the dollar's performance, adjusted for inflation, bottomed in 2011. After re…
Great Graphic: Real Broad Trade Weighted US Dollar Index Great Graphic:  Real Broad Trade Weighted US Dollar Index Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Can't Keep A Good Buck Down

September 26, 2014
The dollar's brief and shallow pullback provided a new buying opportunity.  The greenback is putting the finishing touches on another strong weekly performance.  Of the major currencies, only sterling and the yen have managed to hold their own, and are flat on the week.  
The dollar-bloc continues to under-perform.  The New Zealand dollar lost …
Can't Keep A Good Buck Down Can't Keep A Good Buck Down Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Financial Times James MacKintosh on the Dollar

September 25, 2014
This Cool Video comes from the Financial Times. James MacKintosh discusses the breadth and magnitude of the US dollar's rally.  He cautions that the dollar is priced for perfection and that the market is vulnerable to a pullback.  He discusses one possible trigger:  disappointing US data.    We think this is precisely the risk.    
We have ide…
Cool Video: Financial Times James MacKintosh on the Dollar Cool Video:  Financial Times James MacKintosh on the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

September 25, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) There has been more talk of easy mortgage lending rules for second home buyers and greater funding by the big four China banks and discount mortgages by 30%
2) The Hungarian government confirmed the use of about EUR3 bln of its FX reserves in the household FX loan conversion plan
3) The Israeli c…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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