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Handicapping the ECB Meeting

September 03, 2014
The ECB meets tomorrow.  The combination of soft inflation data and Draghi's speech at Jackson Hole has raised expectations for a policy response. 
Many observers have played up the risks of an asset-backed securities (ABS) purchase scheme for which Draghi said preparations are moving forward quickly.  We are more skeptical that the ECB is pre…
Handicapping the ECB Meeting Handicapping the ECB Meeting Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: EMU PMI and GDP

September 03, 2014
This Great Graphic comes from Markit who is behind most of the purchasing managers surveys.  It shows the composite output index (blue line) and the euro zone GDP (orange line). They line up fairly well.  
The results are consistent with a small uptick in Q3 GDP after stagnating in Q2.  Parts of the periphery, like Ireland and Spain are doing consi…
Great Graphic: EMU PMI and GDP Great Graphic: EMU PMI and GDP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Data and Politics Drive Markets on Hump Day

September 03, 2014
News that Ukraine and Russia have agreed on a cease-fire in east Ukraine was greeted enthusiastically by investors even though what this means for what Putin has called "Novorossiya" is not immediately clear.  Recall that Russian forces still occupy part of Georgia taken in 2008.  That Putin can agree to a cease fire also seems to contra…
Data and Politics Drive Markets on Hump Day Data and Politics Drive Markets on Hump Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Eurozone/US Divergence

September 02, 2014
This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg.  It depicts the US manufacturing PMI (white line) and the eurozone manufacturing ISM (yellow line).  
There has been a clear divergence since the start of the year.  Briefly, in January, the eurozone reading rose above the US.   This had not happened before, though the eurozone time series only goes bac…
Great Graphic: Eurozone/US Divergence Great Graphic: Eurozone/US Divergence Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Equity Allocation Model Update

September 02, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
KEY POINTS
· The divergence in EM and DM equities in 2013 was the first year since 1998 · That divergence has ended in 2014, and there has also been a great intra-EM divergence in returns · Our equity model has delivered very good results this quarter in identifying equity outperformers, and moderate…
Emerging Market Equity Allocation Model Update Emerging Market Equity Allocation Model Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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