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Great Graphic: EMU PMI and GDP

September 03, 2014
This Great Graphic comes from Markit who is behind most of the purchasing managers surveys.  It shows the composite output index (blue line) and the euro zone GDP (orange line). They line up fairly well.  
The results are consistent with a small uptick in Q3 GDP after stagnating in Q2.  Parts of the periphery, like Ireland and Spain are doing consi…
Great Graphic: EMU PMI and GDP Great Graphic:  EMU PMI and GDP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Data and Politics Drive Markets on Hump Day

September 03, 2014
News that Ukraine and Russia have agreed on a cease-fire in east Ukraine was greeted enthusiastically by investors even though what this means for what Putin has called "Novorossiya" is not immediately clear.  Recall that Russian forces still occupy part of Georgia taken in 2008.  That Putin can agree to a cease fire also seems to contra…
Data and Politics Drive Markets on Hump Day Data and Politics Drive Markets on Hump Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Eurozone/US Divergence

September 02, 2014
This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg.  It depicts the US manufacturing PMI (white line) and the eurozone manufacturing ISM (yellow line).  
There has been a clear divergence since the start of the year.  Briefly, in January, the eurozone reading rose above the US.   This had not happened before, though the eurozone time series only goes bac…
Great Graphic: Eurozone/US Divergence Great Graphic:  Eurozone/US Divergence Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Equity Allocation Model Update

September 02, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
KEY POINTS
· The divergence in EM and DM equities in 2013 was the first year since 1998 · That divergence has ended in 2014, and there has also been a great intra-EM divergence in returns · Our equity model has delivered very good results this quarter in identifying equity outperformers, and moderate…
Emerging Market Equity Allocation Model Update Emerging Market Equity Allocation Model Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Sector ETF Perfomances

September 02, 2014
The US S&P 500 is at record highs.  It has gained 8.4% for the year through August.  This is among the best performers among the major markets.  Spain's IBEX 35 has performed nearly as well, and Italy's FTSE Milan Index has trailed fractionally.  However, Canada's Toronto Stock Index is easily the best performer in the G7, gaining …
Great Graphic: Sector ETF Perfomances Great Graphic:  Sector ETF Perfomances Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar Rides High

September 02, 2014
The US dollar is broadly higher against the major and emerging market currencies.  The driving force continues to be the divergence between the US on one hand and the euro area and Japan on the other.  At the same time, the considerably stronger than expected UK construction PMI was overshadowed by the latest YouGov poll, which indicated that the …
Dollar Rides High Dollar Rides High Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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What Happened Monday and a Look Forward

September 01, 2014
The key economic event to start the week was the release of the August manufacturing PMIs. The reports largely confirmed what investors already knew, though will be some tweaks in the understanding of the macro picture. 
Here are the five takeaways:
1.  Following the dismal household spending and soft industrial output reports last week, Japan follo…
What Happened Monday and a Look Forward What Happened Monday and a Look Forward Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

September 01, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
We think the rally in EM assets has longer to run, especially on the equity side, but we are growing more cautious as we move into Q4. For now, the positive election cycle is most behind us, with the exception of Brazil. 
Growth in Europe is slowing while the Chinese economy continues to lack momentum…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets:  Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Labor Day Special

September 01, 2014
The United States and Canada celebrate Labor Day today. Its origins are a few years earlier than the May 1 international labor holiday, which is also of American origin. 

May Day arose out of the ashes of the 1886 Haymarket Square affair in Chicago. The roots of the September Labor Day can be traced back to a large organized labor parade in New Yo…
Great Graphic: Labor Day Special Great Graphic:  Labor Day Special Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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