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Stuck in the Middle with Merkel? Upcoming German State Elections

August 26, 2014
German politics will become more interesting starting this weekend.  On Sunday, the largest state in the former East Germany, Saxony will hold its local election.  The key issue is how does the anti-euro Alternative for Germany (AfD) do.   
In May, much to the chagrin of Chancellor Merkel, the AfD garnered enough vote to secure representation in th…
Stuck in the Middle with Merkel? Upcoming German State Elections Stuck in the Middle with Merkel?  Upcoming German State Elections Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Currency Volatility Firming

August 26, 2014
The low volatility in the currency markets has frustrated speculative investors, and dampened activity.  However, as this Bloomberg-generated Great Graphic shows, implied volatility has begun firming.   Participation appears to be increasing, and this is also evident in the futures market.  
Three-month implied euro volatility (white line) bottomed…
Great Graphic: Currency Volatility Firming Great Graphic:  Currency Volatility Firming Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Today is about Politics and US Durtable Goods Orders

August 26, 2014
The US dollar is little changed.  The consolidative tone, however, does not hide the fact that, despite the stretched technical conditions, participants are still buying the slightest dollar pullback. 
The euro sold into the early gains that carried it to $1.3215 in early European activity.   Sterling stalled in front of $1.66 yesterday and again …
Today is about Politics and US Durtable Goods Orders Today is about Politics and US Durtable Goods Orders Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 26, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Intl Comparison Labor Costs per Employee

August 25, 2014
It almost seems surreal.  The major central banks seem to agree that wages need to rise.  Usually, to the extent central banks address the issue, they traditionally have cautioned against large pay increases.  And is so doing, reveal their underlying pro-business agenda.  Why should it matter to a central bank how the productivity gains are divide…
Great Graphic: Intl Comparison Labor Costs per Employee Great Graphic:  Intl Comparison Labor Costs per Employee Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets for the Week Ahead

August 25, 2014
(from my colleague Ilan Solot)

Emerging markets are starting the week on an uneven footing, caught between the rebound in risk appetite and the broad dollar appreciation trend. The latter refers to the risk that EM currencies will be washed out together with major currencies as the dollar gains. We think this is a genuine concern, but more relevant…
Emerging Markets for the Week Ahead Emerging Markets for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 25, 2014 Rating: 5
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