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Dollar Technicals not as Strong as Fundamentals

July 05, 2014
Leaving aside the defeat in the World Cup, last week was good for the US. Auto sales and US  jobs data were stronger than expected. These provided a nice sedative for some anxiety over the steep contraction in Q1 and the decline in real consumption in April and May.  
On the other hand, the euro zone PMIs were, well, meh. The ECB continues to empha…
Dollar Technicals not as Strong as Fundamentals Dollar Technicals not as Strong as Fundamentals Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2014 Rating: 5
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No Fireworks in Markets as Investors Digest ECB, US Jobs Data and Riksbank

July 04, 2014
The US dollar is a little stronger against the euro and sterling, but is consolidating yesterday's gain against the yen that had lifted it to 12-day high and returned it above the 200-day moving average. The inability of US Treasury yields to maintain the rise above 2.65%-2.67% denied the greenback its necessary fuel.
While US jobs growth was…
No Fireworks in Markets as Investors Digest ECB, US Jobs Data and Riksbank No Fireworks in Markets as Investors Digest ECB, US Jobs Data and Riksbank Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

July 03, 2014
(from my colleague, Dr. Win Thin)
1) China’s FX regulatory body, SAFE, announced additional reforms to its currency trading rules
2) The HKMA acted to defend the HKD peg for the first time since December 2012
3) The won continues to strength despite more North Korea threats and official pushback BOK
4) The news out of South Africa remains bad on t…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Policy is Unchanged, but Draghi is Transforming the ECB

July 03, 2014
Given the new initiatives announced last month, of course the ECB stood pat.  However, Draghi announced the most far-reaching changes of how the central bank will conduct policy starting next year.  
Three important changes will take place.  In his prepared remarks Draghi focused on two, but let's put the other one on the table. With Lithuania …
Policy is Unchanged, but Draghi is Transforming the ECB Policy is Unchanged, but Draghi is Transforming the ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Jump in US Jobs, Gooses Yields and Lifts Dollar

July 03, 2014
The US grew 288k jobs in June, which is the most since January 2012.  The participation rate was unchanged, but the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%.  The other details of the monthly report were largely as expected with a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a unchanged work week at 34.5 hours.  
The household survey, which has lagged recently, …
Jump in US Jobs, Gooses Yields and Lifts Dollar Jump in US Jobs, Gooses Yields and Lifts Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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