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No Fireworks in Markets as Investors Digest ECB, US Jobs Data and Riksbank

July 04, 2014
The US dollar is a little stronger against the euro and sterling, but is consolidating yesterday's gain against the yen that had lifted it to 12-day high and returned it above the 200-day moving average. The inability of US Treasury yields to maintain the rise above 2.65%-2.67% denied the greenback its necessary fuel.
While US jobs growth was…
No Fireworks in Markets as Investors Digest ECB, US Jobs Data and Riksbank No Fireworks in Markets as Investors Digest ECB, US Jobs Data and Riksbank Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

July 03, 2014
(from my colleague, Dr. Win Thin)
1) China’s FX regulatory body, SAFE, announced additional reforms to its currency trading rules
2) The HKMA acted to defend the HKD peg for the first time since December 2012
3) The won continues to strength despite more North Korea threats and official pushback BOK
4) The news out of South Africa remains bad on t…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Policy is Unchanged, but Draghi is Transforming the ECB

July 03, 2014
Given the new initiatives announced last month, of course the ECB stood pat.  However, Draghi announced the most far-reaching changes of how the central bank will conduct policy starting next year.  
Three important changes will take place.  In his prepared remarks Draghi focused on two, but let's put the other one on the table. With Lithuania …
Policy is Unchanged, but Draghi is Transforming the ECB Policy is Unchanged, but Draghi is Transforming the ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Jump in US Jobs, Gooses Yields and Lifts Dollar

July 03, 2014
The US grew 288k jobs in June, which is the most since January 2012.  The participation rate was unchanged, but the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%.  The other details of the monthly report were largely as expected with a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings and a unchanged work week at 34.5 hours.  
The household survey, which has lagged recently, …
Jump in US Jobs, Gooses Yields and Lifts Dollar Jump in US Jobs, Gooses Yields and Lifts Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Mixed Messages Ahead of the ECB and US Jobs

July 03, 2014
The US dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of two events today that are usually separated by a day, due to the US holiday tomorrow: ECB meeting and US monthly employment report. There have session has already had several developments.
Sweden's Riksbank was the most surprising. It delivered a rate cut twice the size that the market expected. It…
Mixed Messages Ahead of the ECB and US Jobs Mixed Messages Ahead of the ECB and US Jobs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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BLS Jobs Cut the Mustard, ADP Plays Catch-Up

July 02, 2014
The ADP estimate for private sector job growth came in at 281k, the strongest since November 2012.  It follows an unrevised 179k in May. Investors will be tempted to revise up their expectations for tomorrow's non-farm payrolls.  The Bloomberg consensus stood at 215k prior to the ADP report.  
On a month to month basis, there are notable discre…
BLS Jobs Cut the Mustard, ADP Plays Catch-Up BLS Jobs Cut the Mustard, ADP Plays Catch-Up Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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ADP and Yellen On Tap Today

July 02, 2014
The foreign exchange participants are largely marking time ahead of tomorrow ECB meeting and US jobs report. Sweden's Riksbank expected to deliver a 25 bp rate cut then too.
Still, there is no keeping sterling down. The new high in the Nationwide house price index and a stronger than expected construction PMI have helped sterling extend its…
ADP and Yellen On Tap Today ADP and Yellen On Tap Today Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Dollar Breaks Neckline of Head and Shoulders Against Mexican Peso Great Graphic:  Dollar Breaks Neckline of Head and Shoulders Against Mexican Peso Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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Plenty of News, Limited Price Action

July 01, 2014
The US dollar remains on its back foot against the euro and sterling, but is firmer against the yen and is little changed against the dollar-bloc currencies. The news stream is full, but in many ways confirms what has already known or appreciated.
Sterling's impressive gains off $1.70 yesterday have been extended with the help of the June ma…
Plenty of News, Limited Price Action Plenty of News, Limited Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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