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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

June 23, 2014
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) 
The firmer than expected June HSBC flash China PMI (50.8 vs. 49.7 consensus) should help boost EM sentiment this week. This is the first reading for this series above 50 since December and fits in with our view that the mainland economy has stabilized, albeit at slower growth rates. We believe the global backdrop…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 23, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Euro Area PMI, GDP and Prices

June 23, 2014
The euro area flash PMI is one of the most important economic reports in the monthly data cycle.  These Great Graphics capture the importance of today's report.

The first two charts come from The Guardian's Business Blog.  The first one shows how well the flash PMI composite output measure tracks GDP.   PMI had overshot the GDP and the weak…
Great Graphic: Euro Area PMI, GDP and Prices Great Graphic: Euro Area PMI, GDP and Prices Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 23, 2014 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Heavy, Euro Heavier

June 23, 2014
The US dollar is starting the new week lower against most of the major currencies, save the euro and Swiss franc. Soft flash euro area PMI data and a stronger than expected flash PMI from China, set the tone.
HSBC's flash manufacturing PMI for China rose to 50.8 from 49.4. It had been expected to move above the 50 boom/bust level. It is th…
US Dollar Heavy, Euro Heavier US Dollar Heavy, Euro Heavier Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 23, 2014 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead: Several Moving Parts

June 22, 2014
There are several events in the week ahead, in the addition to the World Cup, that will attract market attention. These events will take place within a general consensus of the outlook for monetary policy.
In Q3, the Federal Reserve continues to taper at its measured pace. The ECB will monitor the implementation of its new initiative as it prep…
The Week Ahead: Several Moving Parts The Week Ahead: Several Moving Parts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 22, 2014 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: New Ranges?

June 21, 2014
There were three important price developments among the major currencies in the past week.
First, encouraged by more hawkish signals from the Bank of England, in contrast to the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, sterling was bid to new multi-year highs.The Commitment of Traders data show the continued building of gross l…
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: New Ranges? Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: New Ranges? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 21, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Federal Reserve and Repo Market

June 20, 2014
This Cool Video comes from the Financial Times.   Patrick Jenkins, the financial editor, discusses the shadow banking sector in three minutes.  He provides a big picture overview. Two additional points should be noted.  
First, Jenkins talks about shadow banking without specifying the types of firms that are involved.  He does cite the collapse of …
Cool Video: Federal Reserve and Repo Market Cool Video: Federal Reserve and Repo Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 20, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Higher Oil Prices and Impact on Developing Asia

June 20, 2014
The Federal Reserve understands that an increase in oil prices drags the economy more than it lifts inflation.  The ECB seems of two minds.  Under Trichet, the ECB did hike rates in mid-2008 as oil prices were racing higher and the euro zone economy was about to enter a contraction phase for which it is only now emerging.  Now, there seems to be g…
Great Graphic: Higher Oil Prices and Impact on Developing Asia Great Graphic: Higher Oil Prices and Impact on Developing Asia Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 20, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Has Changed

June 19, 2014
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) Russia continues to liberalize the currency and move to an inflation targeting regime 2) Political risk is rising in Poland 3) South Africa came under renewed rating downgrade pressures 4) The Chinese yuan’s one-way depreciating bet appears to have ended 5) The US Supreme Court refused to hear Ar…
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Emerging Markets: What Has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 19, 2014 Rating: 5
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A Word about the Price Action in FX

June 19, 2014
In the wake of the FOMC meeting, the US dollar has softened, especially against the euro and sterling. Both currencies have moved above the recent caps near $1.36 and $1.70 respectively.   What was resistance, should act as support, if the breakouts are to be sustained.
The euro has already reached about $1.3645.  The next immediate targets are th…
A Word about the Price Action in FX A Word about the Price Action in FX Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 19, 2014 Rating: 5
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