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Thoughts on the Mysterious Low Volatility in the Capital Markets

June 03, 2014
One of the most stunning facts about the investment climate is the unusually low volatility throughout the capital markets. The reason that is increasingly worrisome, is not just because trading profits of the major banks suffer or that hedge funds find it difficult to make money.
The reason is that low volatility is seen as a harbinger of do…
Thoughts on the Mysterious Low Volatility in the Capital Markets Thoughts on the Mysterious Low Volatility in the Capital Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Washington State and Minimum Wage

June 03, 2014
There is a perennial debate over the impact of minimum wage.   Economic theory suggests a higher price for a commodity will reduce the demand, all other things being constant.  Commodity is understood to include labor.  
Labor is not really a commodity, though labor power is bought and sold.  People are not commodities and the abstraction leads to …
Great Graphic: Washington State and Minimum Wage Great Graphic: Washington State and Minimum Wage Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Softer Dollar Tone

June 03, 2014
It seems rather ironic.  On the day that US Treasury yields are at their highest level (~2.55%) in nearly three weeks, the dollar itself is sporting a somewhat softer profile.  Admittedly, the real signal from the foreign exchange market was one of consolidation as most of the major currencies are within yesterday's trading ranges ahead of the…
Softer Dollar Tone Softer Dollar Tone Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2014 Rating: 5
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Russia: Cost of Victory

June 02, 2014
Conventional wisdom emphasized the political prowess of Russia's Putin. Popular imagery had the US playing checkers, while Russia played chess. We argued that having to use military means to secure what was a client state was a sign of weakness not strength.
We also rejected the idea that Russia was responding to US weakness. Instead, we n…
Russia: Cost of Victory Russia: Cost of Victory Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead

June 02, 2014
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
We view current EM weakness as corrective in nature. Events this week should feed into what we see as a constructive backdrop for EM. While US jobs data should show continued improvement, it won’t be enough to move the Fed from its current path of tapering and 2015 rate hike. This sweet spot of stronger US growth…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar is Bid to Start New Week and Month

June 02, 2014
The US dollar is firmer against the major and most emerging market currencies. Poor data from Australia, in the form of an unexpected drop in building approvals, and disappointing European manufacturing PMI readings and softer German states' inflation took a toll ahead of this week's events. 
Steady US Treasury yields and the rally in the N…
Dollar is Bid to Start New Week and Month Dollar is Bid to Start New Week and Month Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2014 Rating: 5
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Big Week Ahead

June 01, 2014
This is a big week for the global capital markets. It is likely to prove to be the most significant week of the not only the first half of the year, but perhaps even the entire year. There are four major central bank meetings and the US employment data. The euro zone reports the flash reading of May's consumer prices and there are is the mo…
Big Week Ahead Big Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2014 Rating: 5
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