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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

October 17, 2013
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) The US government shutdown and its impact on the economy and economic releases have pushed out Fed tapering expectations into 2014
2) There are growing signs that Korean officials may start to step up resistance against further won gains
3) The Brazilian swaps intervention program is turning into…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 17, 2013 Rating: 5
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Attention Shifts from US Fiscal Policy to Monetary, Pushes Dollar Lower

October 17, 2013
A last minute deal was struck that re-opens the US federal government and removes the immediate threat of default, but rather than turn the attention from the US, the focus has shifted from fiscal policy to monetary policy. In particular, the Beige Book yesterday underscored the economic uncertainty sparked by the government shutdown. This coupl…
Attention Shifts from US Fiscal Policy to Monetary, Pushes Dollar Lower Attention Shifts from US Fiscal Policy to Monetary, Pushes Dollar Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 17, 2013 Rating: 5
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Italy's Letta Presses Ahead

October 16, 2013
Fresh from a victory over Berlusconi, Italian Prime Minister Letta is pressing ahead with a modest reform program that also tilts away from the path of his technocrat predecessor, without  apparently abandoning fiscal discipline.    In time to meet the EC deadline, the Italian cabinet approved the 2014 budget yesterday.  It must now pass the Itali…
Italy's Letta Presses Ahead Italy's Letta Presses Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 16, 2013 Rating: 5
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Dollar Little Changed; No Default Tomorrow even without Agreement

October 16, 2013
There is much about the US fiscal melodrama that is a farce. Unlike other debt crises, this one is totally self-inflicted. It is a crisis of choice, not necessity. The misconstructions have been repeated so many times that they have taken on a life of their own. October 17 most certainly does not represent the deadline on a US default. 
The U…
Dollar Little Changed; No Default Tomorrow even without Agreement Dollar Little Changed; No Default Tomorrow even without Agreement Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 16, 2013 Rating: 5
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French Politics and Economics

October 15, 2013
Understandably overshadowed by the political melodrama in the US, a second round of a local election in France (Brignoles) resulted in a victory by Le Pen's National Front.  The Socialist candidate had been summarily defeated in the first found and the Le Pen candidate thumped the UMP candidate 54%-46%.  The Socialists have been weakened by th…
French Politics and Economics French Politics and Economics Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2013 Rating: 5
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