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Observations About the Investment Climate

March 11, 2013
After putting in another good week, the US dollar is consolidating its recent gains amid quiet and largely uneventful trading that has kept in fairly narrow trading ranges.

Following Fitch's downgrade of Italy before the weekend, Italian bonds are under a bit a pressure, in a bearish flattening pattern--where yields are rising 3-7 bp across t…
Observations About the Investment Climate Observations About the Investment Climate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 11, 2013 Rating: 5
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Italy: The Dragon and the Cricket

March 10, 2013
The difficulty in making sense of the results of the Italian election has produced the common imagery of a clown to capture the comic Grillo, who appears to be the most unlikely politician since Lech Walesa, the unemployed electrician that led Solidarity in Poland, helping to bring the fatal crisis upon the Soviet Union, and the general disdain fo…
Italy: The Dragon and the Cricket Italy: The Dragon and the Cricket Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 10, 2013 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Frustrates QE Bears

March 09, 2013
The US dollar rose to new multi-month highs against several of the major currencies, including the euro, Swiss franc, British pound and the Japanese yen.  The BOJ, BOE and ECB meet last week and none changed policy.  The Swiss National Bank meets on March 14 and is also unlikely to change policy.  The Federal Reserve meets the following week and i…
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Frustrates QE Bears Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Frustrates QE Bears Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US-Canadian Unit Labor Costs

March 08, 2013
Unit labor costs integrate wages, benefits and productivity into a single measure and is a useful indicator of international competitiveness. This Great Graphic was on Sober Look.

It shows the evolution of Canada and the US unit labor costs.  One can see the dramatic loss of competitiveness of the Canadian economy is stark and unprecedented.

This…
Great Graphic: US-Canadian Unit Labor Costs Great Graphic: US-Canadian Unit Labor Costs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 08, 2013 Rating: 5
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Unequivocally Strong North American Jobs Data

March 08, 2013
The US jobs data was consistent with the recent string of data clearly showing a surprising resilience to the anticipation and tightening of fiscal policy. The strength of the Feb report means the back month modest downward revision is largely irrelevant. 
Non-farm payrolls jumped 236k in February, well above expectations. Hourly earnings rose 0.…
Unequivocally Strong North American Jobs Data Unequivocally Strong North American Jobs Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 08, 2013 Rating: 5
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Consolidation Ahead of Jobs

March 08, 2013
The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies as the last key event ahead of the weekend is awaited--the US February employment report.  The Japanese yen is the main exception to the generalization.  Follow through selling has been seen in Asia and Europe after yesterday's slide.  Barriers thought to been around JPY95.2…
Consolidation Ahead of Jobs Consolidation Ahead of Jobs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 08, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Broken Transmission Mechanism

March 07, 2013
This Great Graphic was on CNN Money.  It shows the yawning divergence between real hourly compensation and productivity gains in the US. 
The two moved in lock step in the first two decades after WWII.  The decoupling was first evident in the late 1960s or early 1970s.  This was the breakdown of the social contract and it was overdetermined--ass…
Great Graphic: The Broken Transmission Mechanism Great Graphic: The Broken Transmission Mechanism Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 07, 2013 Rating: 5
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