Marc to Market

Jobs Data Will Dampen Talk of US Recession, but does Dollar No Favors

Marc Chandler February 01, 2013

The January nonfarm payrolls 157k increase was in line with expectations, but the back month revisions were worth another 127k and average hourly earnings rose 0.2% a bit more than expected. The risk in the unemployment rate to 7.9% from 7.8% reflects two things--the participation rate and the incorporation of new census data.

The revisions mea…

Jobs Data Will Dampen Talk of US Recession, but does Dollar No Favors

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2013 Rating: 5

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Great Graphic: Must See- Euro Head and Shoulders Higher

Marc Chandler February 01, 2013

This Great Graphic, made on Bloomberg, shows a very positive technical development that has taken place on the week bar charts. We mention this possibility in our weekly technical note (here), but given this recent price action, it was worth showing it graphically.
What you are looking at here is a possible head and shoulders bottoming pattern…

Great Graphic: Must See- Euro Head and Shoulders Higher Great Graphic: Must See- Euro Head and Shoulders Higher

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2013 Rating: 5

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Drivers Tighten Grip

Marc Chandler February 01, 2013

The latest developments are serving to strengthen existing forces driving the foreign exchange market and producing a clear divergence of performances against the US dollar.
The firmness in the US 10-year yield near 2%, the lack of much push back from G7 officials about the yen's weakness,a nd soft Japanese economic data (unexpected rise in …

Drivers Tighten Grip

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2013 Rating: 5

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Great Graphic: 2-Year Rate Differential and Euro

Marc Chandler January 31, 2013

We constructed this Great Graphic on Bloomberg. It shows the collapse of the premium the US offered over Germany on two-year government obligations. It also shows how shifting interest rates weighed on the dollar against the euro.

More broadly, it shows how the dollar's exchange rate against the euro tracks the 2-year interest rate differ…

Great Graphic: 2-Year Rate Differential and Euro Great Graphic: 2-Year Rate Differential and Euro

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2013 Rating: 5

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Quiet into Month End

Marc Chandler January 31, 2013

A fragile calm hangs over the foreign exchange market. as the month winds down. There have been some sizable moves in the underlying asset markets, month-end portfolio and hedge adjustments seem modest. Over the course of the month, global equities have rallied. Of note, among the majors the weakness of the Swiss franc (vs euro) and the Japan…

Quiet into Month End

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2013 Rating: 5

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US GDP Poor, but Weakness Exaggerated

Marc Chandler January 30, 2013

US GDP Poor, but Weakness Exaggerated

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2013 Rating: 5

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Great Graphic: Consumer Confidence and S&P 500

Marc Chandler January 30, 2013

This Great Graphic comes from Sober Look blog. It shows how well the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence tracked the S&P 500. However, more recently there has been notable divergence.
It is easy to slip into a causal argument whereby increased confidence "causes" people to buy stocks. Yet we know that for most …

Great Graphic: Consumer Confidence and S&P 500 Great Graphic: Consumer Confidence and S&P 500

Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2013 Rating: 5

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Interest Rates Drive Divergence in FX

Marc Chandler January 30, 2013

The euro has raced higher, with the $1.35 level convincingly breached and the option structure rumored to be struck near $1.3550 taken out. The US dollar has moved to new highs against the Japanese yen near JPY91.40. Beneath both lay interest rate considerations.
There is more evidence today that a tightening of euro area financial conditio…

Interest Rates Drive Divergence in FX