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Great Graphic: 2-Year Rate Differential and Euro

January 31, 2013
We constructed this Great Graphic on Bloomberg.  It shows the collapse of the premium the US offered over Germany on two-year government obligations.  It also shows how shifting interest rates weighed on the dollar against the euro. 

More broadly, it shows how the dollar's exchange rate against the euro tracks the 2-year interest rate differ…
Great Graphic: 2-Year Rate Differential and Euro Great Graphic:  2-Year Rate Differential and Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2013 Rating: 5
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Quiet into Month End

January 31, 2013
A fragile calm hangs over the foreign exchange market. as the month winds down.   There have been some sizable moves in the underlying asset markets, month-end portfolio and hedge adjustments seem modest.  Over the course of the month, global equities have rallied.  Of note, among the majors the weakness of the Swiss franc (vs euro) and the Japan…
Quiet into Month End Quiet into Month End Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 31, 2013 Rating: 5
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US GDP Poor, but Weakness Exaggerated US GDP Poor, but Weakness Exaggerated Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Consumer Confidence and S&P 500

January 30, 2013
This Great Graphic comes from Sober Look blog. It shows how well the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence tracked the S&P 500.  However, more recently there has been notable divergence.  
It is easy to slip into a causal argument whereby increased confidence "causes" people to buy stocks.  Yet we know that for most …
Great Graphic: Consumer Confidence and S&P 500 Great Graphic:  Consumer Confidence and S&P 500 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2013 Rating: 5
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Interest Rates Drive Divergence in FX

January 30, 2013
The euro has raced higher, with the $1.35 level convincingly breached and the option structure rumored to be struck near $1.3550 taken out.   The US dollar has moved to new highs against the Japanese yen  near JPY91.40.  Beneath both lay interest rate considerations.  
There is more evidence today that a tightening of euro area financial conditio…
Interest Rates Drive Divergence in FX Interest Rates Drive Divergence in FX Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 30, 2013 Rating: 5
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CNBC Video Clip: FX Outlook CNBC Video Clip:  FX Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Swiss Anomaly: Still Negative Nominal Rates?

January 29, 2013
A dominant meme in the foreign exchange market is that the world has taken an important step away from the edge of the abyss.  It may have been led by three words from ECB's Draghi (as in "whatever it takes"), but has been complimented by a number of other steps, including the IMF mea culpa for under-estimated the fiscal multiplier,…
Swiss Anomaly: Still Negative Nominal Rates? Swiss Anomaly:  Still Negative Nominal Rates? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: What are Chinese Consumers Buying?

January 29, 2013
This Great Graphiccomes from the Financial Times, which drew it from Euromonitor.  The charts look at three categories of consumer goods, beauty and personal care, packaged food and soft drinks.  
Western aesthetic are a powerful draw and western brands dominate the beauty and personal care products.  The market share of these top five firms has i…
Great Graphic: What are Chinese Consumers Buying? Great Graphic:  What are Chinese Consumers Buying? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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Flattish Consolidation Featured

January 29, 2013
The potential for turnaround Tuesday is resolving itself into flattish consolidation in the foreign exchange market.  The light news stream is also denying participants of fresh trading incentives.  The strongest of the major currencies today, the yen, Australian dollar and British pound have been the weakest in recent sessions.  The week's b…
Flattish Consolidation Featured Flattish Consolidation Featured Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2013 Rating: 5
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