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ECB Preview: Watch Greece and Spain

November 07, 2012
The ECB is not likely to cut interest rates at Thursday’s council meeting. The focus, as is often the case, will be on the press conference. Here two countries will likely dominate the discussion Greece and Spain. 
In recent weeks there seems to be greater disagreement among the Troika on how to address the obviously unsustainable Greek debt bu…
ECB Preview: Watch Greece and Spain ECB Preview:  Watch Greece and Spain Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 07, 2012 Rating: 5
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Brief Thoughts on the Price Action

November 06, 2012
Turnaround Tuesday was not all that convincing.  The correction really took on more of the appearance of consolidation.   Renewed dollar gains look likely, regardless of the electoral results, which are still not known at this juncture.  
The lifting of the event risk posed by the election is likely to be over shortly and this is good news for in…
Brief Thoughts on the Price Action Brief Thoughts on the Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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Unlikely Day for Turnaround Tuesday

November 06, 2012
The US dollar is consolidating its recent gains with a most unlikely backdrop.  European data was much weaker than expected.  The Greek parliament vote on reforms and the 2013 budget look like cliff hangers.  With national polls pointing to a statistical dead heat, the US presidential election is thought to be coming down to the wire.  Legal mane…
Unlikely Day for Turnaround Tuesday Unlikely Day for Turnaround Tuesday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 06, 2012 Rating: 5
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The French Connection

November 05, 2012
After the Berlin Wall fell and Germany was reunified, it struggled for several years as the "weak man" in Europe, before enacting structural reforms.  Italy and Spain, as well as the periphery of Europe more generally,  are being forced by investors and the EU to enact structural reforms.  If only France were that lucky...
France has si…
The French Connection The French Connection Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Six FX Drivers

November 05, 2012
This is a momentous week.  The two largest economies have political transitions, three central banks meet, and Greece's parliament votes on key reforms, which if approved, will avert an immediate crisis. as the beleaguered country is now projected to run out of funds within the fortnight.  
At the same time, nothing changes.  The fiscal cliff…
Six FX Drivers Six FX Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 05, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: QE3+ Yet to Impact Balance Sheet

November 04, 2012
This Great Graphic comes from Also Spracht Analyst.  It shows the composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet as of November 1.  There has been some fluctuation since QE3+ was announced, but the Fed's balance sheet is essentially flat.  
The reason appears to be due to technical factors having to due with idiosyncrasies of the mort…
Great Graphic: QE3+ Yet to Impact Balance Sheet Great Graphic: QE3+ Yet to Impact Balance Sheet Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Trending Market or Not?

November 03, 2012
The key issue facing market participants is whether the dollar is trending or moving in a range.  We retain a favorable outlook for the dollar on a medium term basis, we had expected the range trading environment to persist primarily because we do not anticipate a resolution of what we see as the key issues facing investors--the US fiscal cliff an…
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Trending Market or Not? Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook:  Trending Market or Not? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 03, 2012 Rating: 5
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Still Skeptical of Breakouts

November 02, 2012
We have argued against expecting a near-term breakout of the dollar on the grounds that key issues that have made for broad trading ranges are not going to be resolved yet.  
The dollar is well bid in Europe.  We have done well this week fading the European moves.  Today may prove no exception, even though the US reports the October jobs figures.…
Still Skeptical of Breakouts Still Skeptical of Breakouts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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Bossa Nova, It Ain't

November 01, 2012
A new month has begun but the sounds are the same.  Ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report, we should anticipate generally consolidative activity.  The dollar is a bit bid in Europe, moving above JPY80 and seeing follow through buying against the euro after staging a recovering in NY.  Yesterday we noted here that the dollar selling in Europe was…
Bossa Nova, It Ain't Bossa Nova, It Ain't Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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