Edit

The Two Drivers

July 05, 2012
There are two main concerns which appear to be driving the price action.  First, there is heightened anxiety about the global economic slowdown.  This is evident in the fact that easing of monetary policy by four countries (China, the UK, the ECB and Denmark) failed to breathe fresh life into the moribund animal spirits.  
Second, is that the Europ…
The Two Drivers The Two Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

China Surprises, ECB, BOE Not

July 05, 2012
Neither the BOE nor the ECB surprised.  Both did what the consensus expected.  The BOE will buy GBP50 bln more gilts.  There was, I thought, some risk of GBP75 bln.  Any additional QE now will have to wait until after the next inflation report in early August, which means an actual increase in QE is September at the earliest.  
The ECB cut key ra…
China Surprises, ECB, BOE Not China Surprises, ECB, BOE Not Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Dollar Firm Ahead of Key Events

July 05, 2012
The US dollar is trading near its best levels for the week against the euro, Swiss franc and sterling ahead of ECB and BOE meetings, and US ADP and service ISM.  New market moving developments are scarce and the market has largely traded within the ranges set at the end of last week.  The Australian and Canadian dollars have seen some follow thro…
Dollar Firm Ahead of Key Events Dollar Firm Ahead of Key Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Great Graphic: ECB Balance Sheet and Composition

July 04, 2012
This Great Graphic set comes from Sober Look.  Two important points are illustrated.  First, the ECB's balance sheet continues to expand to new record highs, even after the LTROs.  Since late May there has been a dramatic increase in bank borrowings at the ECB's weekly refunding operation.  It was averaging around 40 bln a week in May bef…
Great Graphic: ECB Balance Sheet and Composition Great Graphic:  ECB Balance Sheet and Composition Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Higgs Boson and FX: What Matters

July 04, 2012
The scientists at CERN's atom smasher have reported discovering a new particle. The scientists themselves avoid calling it the "God Particle", though it does not stop the media. Essentially, this particle, called Higgs Boson, is believed to create an invisible field that gives mass to matter. 
Prior to the Big Bang, it is thought …
Higgs Boson and FX: What Matters Higgs Boson and FX: What Matters Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Currencies Continue To Consolidate

July 03, 2012
The holiday abbreviated US equity and bond session today will likely ensure that the major currencies continue to trade in narrow ranges.  With the BOE/ECB meeting outcomes Thursday and the US employment data Friday, the price action could very well resemble a coiling spring, with a big move to follow this consolidative phase.  
There have been a…
Currencies Continue To Consolidate Currencies Continue To Consolidate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit

Ten Observations on Europe

July 02, 2012
1.  The fact that access to the EFSF/ESM requires unanimous approval from the seventeen participants means that Merkel preserved the German veto.  This circumscribes the victory claimed by Hollande, Monti and Rajoy.   Germany also successfully resisted pressure to increase the size of the funds, even though many, if not most, observers suspect th…
Ten Observations on Europe Ten Observations on Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Currencies Consolidate Pre-Weekend Moves

July 02, 2012
The major foreign currencies were unable to build on the euphoric gains seen before the weekend in response to the EU Summit developments.  Even before it was clear that the Netherlands and Finland were not keen on the direct bank access to ESM funds, the euro's gains were being trimmed.  
In part, this is a learned behavior.  Participants ha…
Currencies Consolidate Pre-Weekend Moves Currencies Consolidate Pre-Weekend Moves Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2012 Rating: 5
Edit
) no-repeat top center;background-size:cover'>

Positioning and Currency Outlook

July 01, 2012
The US dollar bulls had ceded control for the better part of the first three weeks in June as corrective forces took hold.   They had regained the whip hand subsequently, but lost it again at the end of last week as markets responded euphorically to the EU summit. The dramatic reaction has resulted in a significant deterioration of the dollar'…
Positioning and Currency Outlook Positioning and Currency Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2012 Rating: 5
Powered by Blogger.