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Spain and Banking Union

June 04, 2012
Reports suggest that Spain is coming under increasing political pressure to seek assistance. Yet the stigma is too much and Spanish officials recognize that if asks for assistance, many investors will conclude that the country is insolvent and would aggravate the economic and financial pressure it is already facing.
Instead Spain has a two-prong…
Spain and Banking Union Spain and Banking Union Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Beware The New STD: Sovereign Transmitted Debt Beware The New STD:  Sovereign Transmitted Debt Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Six Observations to Start the Week

June 04, 2012
The US dollar is little changed against the major foreign currencies and showing a slightly heavier bias against many of the emerging market currencies. The dollar is largely trading within the ranges seen last Friday, with the holiday in the UK (today and tomorrow) sapping some liquidity. Asian equity markets are broadly lower, with the MSCI A…
Six Observations to Start the Week Six Observations to Start the Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2012 Rating: 5
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Commitment of Traders Report and Technical Outlook

June 02, 2012
The latest Commitment of Traders report covers the week ending May 29.  Generally speaking non-commercial participants in the futures market were dollar buyers, either by adding to net short foreign currency positions, such as the euro and Australian dollar, or by reducing net long positions, as was the case in sterling and the Canadian dollar.  …
Commitment of Traders Report and Technical Outlook Commitment of Traders Report and Technical Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Bank Exposure to European Debt

June 02, 2012
For those of you who (unlike my brilliant webmaster) are not off to the American Craft Brew Fest today, here is a great [interactive] graphic from Reuters on bank exposure to European Debt. You'll have to click on the link to see it. Happy Saturday!
Great Graphic: Bank Exposure to European Debt Great Graphic: Bank Exposure to European Debt Reviewed by magonomics on June 02, 2012 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: European PMI Readings

June 01, 2012
Here is a Great Graphic from the Financial Times.  It captures the weakness in the core, as in Germany, France and the Netherlands.  It also underscores the problem Spain faces.  Its PMI was below Greece's.  The prospects for such a weak economy can only make its regional and banking problems more acute.  Ireland is the strongest, but given th…
Great Graphic: European PMI Readings Great Graphic:  European PMI Readings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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Dollar Comes Back

June 01, 2012
The US dollar is recovering from the earlier QE and G7 speculation.   The dollar's price action is a bit like a beach ball brought underwater.   Even if I am wrong about QE (that it is unlikely), the fact of the matter is that China, Australia, the ECB and the BOE will respond before the Federal Reserve.  
In addition, while the US employment d…
Dollar Comes Back Dollar Comes Back Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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Shockingly Poor US Employment Data

June 01, 2012
The US employment report was simply terrible. Adding insult to injury, the April data were revised lower as well. The dollar initially firmed, but as participants consider the risks of QE3, the upside momentum stalled.
Non-farm payrolls rose 69k, less than half of what was expected and the April job growth was cut to 77k from 115k initially. T…
Shockingly Poor US Employment Data Shockingly Poor US Employment Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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News Stream Poor, Look Out Below

June 01, 2012
It is difficult to envisage a poorer stream of news that the market received earlier today.   Weak reports increase the prospects of a policy response soon.  China could cut reserve requirements this weekend.  Next week the RBA, ECB and BOE meet and the risks have increased for for action.  The issue in Australia is between a 25 and 50 bp cut.  T…
News Stream Poor, Look Out Below News Stream Poor, Look Out Below Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2012 Rating: 5
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