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Thoughts on the Greek Referendum

October 31, 2011
While I have consistently been highlighting the political risks in Greece that could throw a new monkey wrench into European plans and global capital markets, today's turn took me by surprise. The euro had been trading heavily all day and Italian bond yields were holding above 6%, despite talk of ECB purchases, and the French-bund spread was w…
Thoughts on the Greek Referendum Thoughts on the Greek Referendum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 31, 2011 Rating: 5
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German 55.5 bln euro Error to be Explored

October 31, 2011
It appears that an accounting error at FMS Wertmanagement, the bad bank for Hypo Real Estate, may have overstated the debt by 55.5 bln euros (~$77.7 bln). FMS. FMS has reportedly corrected its figures, to lower the debt by 24.5 bln in 2010 and by 31 bln euros for this year. The accounting adjustment will reduce Germany's debt/GDP by a couple o…
German 55.5 bln euro Error to be Explored German 55.5 bln euro Error to be Explored Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 31, 2011 Rating: 5
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BOJ Shows Hand and Other Developments

October 31, 2011
The Bank of Japan intervened unilaterally in the foreign exchange market for the first time in three months and sent the dollar from JPY75.35, record lows, to JPY79.50 in two hours. Estimates put the size of the intervention at a new single day record near JPY6 trillion. The IMM Commitment of Traders showed the next speculative position had more t…
BOJ Shows Hand and Other Developments BOJ Shows Hand and Other Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 31, 2011 Rating: 5
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Six Events and a Few Things to Watch in the Week Ahead

October 30, 2011
Risk appetites returned in a big way in October, as equities, emerging markets, commodities and currencies all generally advanced and smartly so, recouping much of the ground lost in September. The events in the week ahead will likely set the tone for the month of November. They include three central bank meetings (RBA, Fed and ECB), two data poin…
Six Events and a Few Things to Watch in the Week Ahead Six Events and a Few Things to Watch in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 30, 2011 Rating: 5
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To Forgive is Divine

October 27, 2011
Markets rallied strongly in response to the European developments. Yet it is an exaggeration to think that this rekindled risk appetites as the whole month of October has seen equities, emerging markets, commodities and foreign currencies trend higher, recovering from their neck-breaking, wealth-destroying plunge in September. Still the advance on…
To Forgive is Divine To Forgive is Divine Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 27, 2011 Rating: 5
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Look to Fade Relief Rally

October 27, 2011
Big sigh of relief that European officials delivered the bare minimum amount of details of the new plan, which are largely as had been anticipated here and elsewhere. The broad outlines consist of a 50% haircut on private sector holdings of Greek bonds, leveraging the EFSF 4-5x for firepower of around 1 trillion euros, 9% Tier 1 capital by mid-201…
Look to Fade Relief Rally Look to Fade Relief Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 27, 2011 Rating: 5
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A Follow Up to the Absence of a Muni Crisis in the US

October 26, 2011
On October 4th I wrote "One Crisis that Did not Materialize", which discussed the fact that the fears of hundreds of billions of dollar losses from defualts in the municipal bond market proved wide of the mark. Many were skeptical. Here is the latest data.
The Rockefeller Institute's analysis of Census Bureau data found that prelimin…
A Follow Up to the Absence of a Muni Crisis in the US A Follow Up to the Absence of a Muni Crisis in the US Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 26, 2011 Rating: 5
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Australia: Rate Cut Likely Next Week

October 26, 2011
Minutes from the recent RBA meeting kept the door ajar to a rate cut next week, and today's CPI figures, especially the fact that the preferred trimmed mean measure rose 0.3%, half as much as the consensus expected and bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.3% from 2.6%. Pushes the door wide open. Barring some major shock in the coming days, th…
Australia: Rate Cut Likely Next Week Australia:  Rate Cut Likely Next Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 26, 2011 Rating: 5
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Berlusconi Cuts Deal: Et Tu Brute

October 26, 2011
Controversial Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi appears to have finally capitulated to international and domestic pressure. Press reports indicate that he has agreed to step down by January. This in turn will bring forward elections, probably to March 2012, a year earlier than Berlusconi had previously insisted.
Italy would join a number of other c…
Berlusconi Cuts Deal: Et Tu Brute Berlusconi Cuts Deal:  Et Tu Brute Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 26, 2011 Rating: 5
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