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The Trend is Your Friend

September 30, 2011
The US dollar appears to be shining as a safe haven.  The Swiss remain committed to their peg and the weakness of consumer confidence and new threats of deflation can only harden the SNB's resolve.  Comments form one SNB member that it will diversify reserves into sterling and yen does not appear to be helping those currencies.  Surely Japanes…
The Trend is Your Friend The Trend is Your Friend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 30, 2011 Rating: 5
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Another Yen Update

September 29, 2011
Today is first time in two weeks that the US dollar has been above JPY77 and thus far the penetration is minor. Although no doubt Japanese officials and corporate Japan would prefer a weaker yen, given the concerns about the impact of the success of the SNB in blocking hot flow entering Switzerland, the stability of the yen must be partly welcome.…
Another Yen Update Another Yen Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 29, 2011 Rating: 5
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Bundestag Approves, but Agenda Shifting

September 29, 2011
As widely anticipated the German Bundestag approved the EFSF reform plans.  The euro recovered fully from the sell-off in the US session yesterday that had brought it to almost $1.35 early in the Asian session.  However, that was largely before the vote and subsequently the euro half a cent.  Initial support is seen near $1.36, but the near-term r…
Bundestag Approves, but Agenda Shifting Bundestag Approves, but Agenda Shifting Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 29, 2011 Rating: 5
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US Durable Goods Orders--Another Point for Good Q3 GDP

September 28, 2011
Today's durable goods orders data lends credence to our projection of fairly robust Q3 US GDP after the dismal 0.8% expansion in H1.
The durable goods report is the third important piece of data that should encourage economists to look for something close to what is regarded as trend growth in the US (2.5%-3.0%). The sharp rise in July persona…
US Durable Goods Orders--Another Point for Good Q3 GDP US Durable Goods Orders--Another Point for Good Q3 GDP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 28, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains Heavy

September 28, 2011
The US dollar remains soft, near yesterday's lows.  The main developments today include somewhat higher than expected German state reports.  They follow on the heels of the relatively firm M3 and private lending figures and suggest that market talk of a 50 bp rate cut by the ECB is over the top.  As noted previously, the ECB is likely to focus…
Dollar Remains Heavy Dollar Remains Heavy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 28, 2011 Rating: 5
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