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Waiting for Godot

July 07, 2011
The US dollar is holding on to yesterday's gains as the market awaits the key events of the week:  the ECB meeting and press conference and the US jobs data--for which the imprecise ADP data will serve as the proxy today ahead of tomorrow's national report. 
While yesterday's free-fall in peripheral European bonds has moderated today, …
Waiting for Godot Waiting for Godot Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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Italy--Still Part of the Periphery

July 06, 2011
Many have long suspected that Greece, Ireland and Portugal are ultimately manageable given the relatively small size relative to the euro zone GDP and institutional capacity of the EFSF. Spain was the real challenge. Yet the price action in recent days warns that beyond Spain, Italy looms even larger.
Over the past five sessions, Italian bonds hav…
Italy--Still Part of the Periphery Italy--Still Part of the Periphery Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 06, 2011 Rating: 5
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Containment Failure

July 06, 2011
There is only one story today in the capital markets.  As European officials continue to debate private sector participation in Greece's second package, Moody's seemingly caught the market off-guard by slashing Portugal's rating 4-notches late yesterday--keeping it on negative watch and warning it may need a second aid package as well.…
Containment Failure Containment Failure Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 06, 2011 Rating: 5
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Mexico Snaps Six Day Advance, Correlated with Equities

July 05, 2011
The Mexican peso is losing ground against the dollar today for the first time in seven sessions. The peso's heavier tone is consistent with the generally heavier tone among emerging market currencies today. Concerns about global growth, with softer than expected PMI readings from China and Europe, concern that China may still hike rates, and t…
Mexico Snaps Six Day Advance, Correlated with Equities Mexico Snaps Six Day Advance, Correlated with Equities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2011 Rating: 5
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Consolidative Tone Offers Fragile Support to Dollar

July 05, 2011
The recent pattern is holding.  Fridays tend to be trend days.  There is often some albeit limited follow through on Mondays before consolidation phase sets it.  The foreign exchange market is in that consoldiative phase that began yesterday. 
The euro found support near $1.4460 and looks to probe higher in North America today.  Still the uncertain…
Consolidative Tone Offers Fragile Support to Dollar Consolidative Tone Offers Fragile Support to Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2011 Rating: 5
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Fourth of July Note

July 04, 2011
The US dollar is mixed against the major and emerging market foreign currencies. It is largely consolidating the losses suffered in recent sessions as the Greek government survived a vote of confidence and parliament approved a new austerity program in the face of public protests. 
This led to the EU approval of the next tranche of aid under the pl…
Fourth of July Note Fourth of July Note Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Finishing Week Softly

July 01, 2011
The dollar is mixed today, but is set the finish the week on soft footing.   The euro's resilience is notable today in the face of the disappointing news stream.  However, it has not convincingly violated the downtrend line (connecting the early May and early June highs) and comes in near $1.4540-50 today.   

The short-term momentum indicator…
Dollar Finishing Week Softly Dollar Finishing Week Softly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2011 Rating: 5
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