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The Other UK Spectacle: Elections and Referendum

April 29, 2011
The Royal Wedding (and Kate Middleton) are capturing the world's attention, but there is another event around the corner that may be more notable for investors. On May 5th the UK will hold its first referendum since the mid-1970s. It is on the general voting style and it will likely keep the current "1st past the post" system. On the…
The Other UK Spectacle: Elections and Referendum The Other UK Spectacle: Elections and Referendum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Losses Extended

April 29, 2011
The US dollar fell to record lows against the Swiss franc and has fallen to new multi-year lows against the yuan.  Pressure remains against most of the major currencies.  The trend continues to be your friend, until it is not.  Today is the ninth consecutive day that the euro is gaining against the dolllar. 
The Swiss franc turned better bid follo…
Dollar Losses Extended Dollar Losses Extended Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 29, 2011 Rating: 5
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Fox News: Will the Dollar Continue to Decline? Fox News: Will the Dollar Continue to Decline? Reviewed by magonomics on April 28, 2011 Rating: 5
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IS EMU Debt Crisis Morphing into a Euro Positive Force?

April 28, 2011
We argue that a key driver lifting the euro has been the divergent monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the ECB. When investors perceive the European debt crisis becoming acute, it has eclipsed the main driver and weighed on the euro episodically in recent months. However, the increased speculation (and therefore risk) that Greece restruct…
IS EMU Debt Crisis Morphing into a Euro Positive Force? IS EMU Debt Crisis Morphing into a Euro Positive Force? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Heavy, Sell Shallow Bounces Prevails

April 28, 2011
The US dollar is lower.  If that sounds like a broken record is should.  The euro is higher today for the eighth consecutive session, the longest streak in several years.  The dollar's weakness ought not be seen as a flight from the US as US asset prices--bonds and stocks--continue to do well. 
Nor do I think carry really captures what is goin…
Dollar Heavy, Sell Shallow Bounces Prevails Dollar Heavy, Sell Shallow Bounces Prevails Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 28, 2011 Rating: 5
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Thinking about Haircuts

April 27, 2011
What a cruel month April has been to the peripheral debt markets. Greek 10-year yields have risen 349 bp, more than the cumulative increase over the previous 11 months. Portugal's 10-year yield has risen 180 bp this month and 190 bp over the previous 11 months. Of the three, Ireland has performed best with the 10-year yield rising 42 bp this m…
Thinking about Haircuts Thinking about Haircuts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 27, 2011 Rating: 5
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FX Developments

April 27, 2011
The US dollar is more mixed today, ahead of the FOMC statement and Bernanke press conference.  The euro pushed above $1.47 in Asia, partly on the back of cross rate gains against the yen following S&P cut of the sovereign outlook for Japan and the outlook for half dozen public institutions.  JGBs were not impacted, but the yen did soften.  
In…
FX Developments FX Developments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 27, 2011 Rating: 5
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