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Dollar Firm

February 07, 2011
Talk of continued official demand for euros out of Asia appears to be being absorbed by the market that seems keen to pare back positions. Support has been seen in the $1.3540 area and a break would initially target $1.3480 and then later $1.3350. Sterling is lower for the third consecutive session, but is holding up a bit better. The market recog…
Dollar Firm Dollar Firm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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What About that Yen?

February 04, 2011
Overshadowed by developments in the US and Europe, the Japanese yen has been largely sidelined and its movement more a function of the other side of the trade, like the euro, dollar and even the Australian dollar. The dollar appears poised to trade higher, with a move back toward the upper end of its Q4 range in the JPY84 area.
This will require a…
What About that Yen? What About that Yen? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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Is the Dollar Turn At Hand?

February 04, 2011
The US dollar sold off in recent weeks. While we recognized the fundamental considerations behind its decline, we disagreed with them. Prudence and financial discipline warned against fighting the market. Now, however, a crack in the dollar bear case has crystallized and there is a potential opportunity here for medium term investors to reduce sho…
Is the Dollar Turn At Hand? Is the Dollar Turn At Hand? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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Chef's Special: Disappointment

February 04, 2011
Disappointment may be served up as the chef's special today Market expectations are at risk of getting ahead of themselves on the two main events today, the US jobs data and the EU Summit. Nearly every economic report showed an improvement in the US labor market, including both ISM reports, Challenger report, weekly initial jobless claims and …
Chef's Special: Disappointment Chef's Special:  Disappointment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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Euro Observations

February 03, 2011
I have been skeptical of the euro's rally in recent weeks, fueled by a shift in interest rate expectations and confidence that European officials are going to come up with a "comprehensive plan" to arrest the more than a year old debt crisis. However, there have been few signs that selling the euro was a low risk venture. Today could…
Euro Observations Euro Observations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2011 Rating: 5
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Euro Eases Ahead of ECB Press Conference

February 03, 2011
The consoldiative tone in the euro appears to be more a function of caution ahead of Trichet's press conference following the ECB meeting. The January service PMI rose to 55.9 from 55.2 of the flash reading and 54.2 in Dec. Coupled with the strength of the manufacturing PMI earlier in the week, a broadening of the euro zone recovery would seem…
Euro Eases Ahead of ECB Press Conference Euro Eases Ahead of ECB Press Conference Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2011 Rating: 5
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Some Thoughts about US Autos and Manufacturing

February 02, 2011
Currency analysis often focuses on the macro economics and does not delve into sectoral performance. Yet what is happening in the auto sector looks promising and is in fact impacting the macro economic variables. The first clue was actually in Q4 GDP figures. Household purchases of durable goods is very cyclical. This jumped in Q4 and consumption…
Some Thoughts about US Autos and Manufacturing Some Thoughts about US Autos and Manufacturing Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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Understanding the FX Drivers

February 02, 2011
Many investors are concluding that the Federal Reserve will lag not only many emerging markets, but also a wider number of European countries. Yesterday’s PMIs drive home the point that growth at the start of the New Year is accelerating. This helps embolden the risk appetite at the same time that the market is being told by European officials tha…
Understanding the FX Drivers Understanding the FX Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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Highlights for Groundhog's Day

February 02, 2011
The US dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market, driven by its resumption as a financing currency as growth and inflation raise prospects of BOE and ECB rate hikes while the Federal Reserve is still committed easing monetary conditions.
At the same time, investors growing more confident that officials will address the periphera…
Highlights for Groundhog's Day Highlights for Groundhog's Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2011 Rating: 5
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