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Be Prepared to Buy into Potential Dollar Decline

January 07, 2011
There has been an obvious build up of expectations about the US jobs report today. The dramatic jump in the ADP estimate spark a large upward revision in expectations even though the short-comings of its estimate and its track record are well known. In part the optimism also reflects the recent string of data that has convinced even many of the cy…
Be Prepared to Buy into Potential Dollar Decline Be Prepared to Buy into Potential Dollar Decline Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 07, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dow Jones Newswire: Annual Market Forecast Dow Jones Newswire: Annual Market Forecast Reviewed by magonomics on January 06, 2011 Rating: 5
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Belgium: From the Frying Pan into the Fire

January 06, 2011
Belgium's political crisis is deepening and since it is part of the euro zone, it is being reflected in the Belgian debt market. The 10-year bond yield is up 10 bp today to above 4% and the 2-year yield is up 4 bp. Late yesterday the seven parties failed to resolve their differences and put in a new government. Recall that last month, S&P …
Belgium: From the Frying Pan into the Fire Belgium:  From the Frying Pan into the Fire Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 06, 2011 Rating: 5
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Beware of Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact

January 06, 2011
The price action this week underscores our view that participants have unwound year-end developments. The euro has returned to back to the 200-day moving average it had been toying with until late Dec.
Perhaps even more illustrative of this point is that the weakest G10 currency in the last two weeks of December was sterling, which has been best p…
Beware of Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact Beware of Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 06, 2011 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bulls Return from New Years

January 05, 2011
There appear to be three main drivers in the foreign exchange market today. First, the failure of the euro yesterday near the upper end of its recent range is both the cause and effect of dealers expressing bearish sentiment by re-establishing short positions squeezed out in the thin holiday markets.
The convincing break of the $1.3250 area would …
Dollar Bulls Return from New Years Dollar Bulls Return from New Years Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2011 Rating: 5
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Currencies and Commodities

January 04, 2011
One of the market developments that is capturing the imagination (and wallets) of investors is the rally in commodities. As an example, since late Aug '10, when Fed Chairman Bernanke seemed to signal QEII and US economic data began improving more noticeably, the CRB index has rallied about 30%. Roughly a third of the gain was recorded since la…
Currencies and Commodities Currencies and Commodities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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The Pound is Sterling, Aussie's Shine Tarnished

January 04, 2011
The value-added tax is set to rise in a handful of European countries this year, with the UK's 2.5 percentage point rise (to 20%) is the largest followed by Portugal's 2 percentage point hike (to 23%). Slovakia , Poland and Latvia have 1 point hikes (20%, 23% and 22% respectively). The UK's Telegraph reports that retailers may raise pr…
The Pound is Sterling, Aussie's Shine Tarnished The Pound is Sterling, Aussie's Shine Tarnished Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 04, 2011 Rating: 5
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Hungary: EU Presidency, but Full of Controversy

January 03, 2011
Hungary assumes the rotating EU presidency for the first half of 2011. Yet its is mired in controversy, but with the government enjoying a 2/3 majority in parliament, there more pressure is likely to have to be brought to bear on Prime Minister Orban if Hungary is going to adjust its positions.
The controversy is at least threefold. First, the med…
Hungary: EU Presidency, but Full of Controversy Hungary:  EU Presidency, but Full of Controversy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 03, 2011 Rating: 5
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Four Themes To Start the New Year

January 03, 2011
In still holiday-thin markets, the US dollar has started the New Year off on a firm note, recovering a good part of the slide recorded last week. There a 4 themes that I expect to dominate investment considerations in the coming weeks. They are:
1. The US economy appeared to accelerate in Q4, maybe toward double the 1.7% annualized pace seen in Q2 …
Four Themes To Start the New Year Four Themes To Start the New Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 03, 2011 Rating: 5
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