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Dollar Bounce, but Not Real Thing

October 18, 2010
The US dollar is broadly higher as the correction seen before the weekend was extended through the Asian session. In Europe, the greenback’s gains have been pared, but it remains above last Friday’s high against the major currencies. The exception is the yen, against which the dollar has been confined to roughly JPY81.00-JPY81.50.
The dollar’s bou…
Dollar Bounce, but Not Real Thing Dollar Bounce, but Not Real Thing Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 18, 2010 Rating: 5
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Data View

October 15, 2010
The US reported a slew of data and although there are some interesting nuggets, the data is unlikely to alter views on the state of the economy or the likelihood of QEII.
CPI was uninspiring, though the core rate slipped to 0.8%, which is the lowest level in nearly 50 years. Of note, the owners equivalent rent was unchanged for the second consecut…
Data View Data View Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2010 Rating: 5
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The Broken Cash Register

October 15, 2010
Opinion seems nearly universal that what we are currently experiencing is not the typical business cycle with which we are familiar. Besides being the end of a long speculative bubble and the magnitudes involved, the significance of what is happening is difficult to fathom. To the extent that some have thought about the bigger picture, the discus…
The Broken Cash Register The Broken Cash Register Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2010 Rating: 5
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Waiting for Big Ben

October 15, 2010
The US dollar remains soft, but within yesterday’s trading ranges, as the market awaits Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s speech early in the North American session (8:15 EST/12:15 GMT) on “Monetary Policy Objectives and Tools in Low Inflation Environment”. The market is hoping to glean more insight into the likely Fed actions.
Headline risk als…
Waiting for Big Ben Waiting for Big Ben Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2010 Rating: 5
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More Thoughts on China's Reserve

October 14, 2010
Yesterday China reported its reserves figures. In my note I mis-represented the increase in reserves. Chinese figures show the reserves jumped a massive $194 bln. This a huge number.
The trade surplus is Q3 was about $65 bln. Can the rest be hot money, direct investment flows being neutralized, and extra efforts to restrain the CNY's rise? One…
More Thoughts on China's Reserve More Thoughts on China's Reserve Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2010 Rating: 5
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Data Leaves Dollar Vulnerable

October 14, 2010
US headline PPI came in somewhat higher than expected at 0.4%. Weekly initial jobless claims were a bit stronger than expected and the US trade deficit was wider than expected. The trade balance, adjusted for inflation, is used to calculate GDP and there was a sharp widening of this deficit measure, which warns that, if anything, economists may ha…
Data Leaves Dollar Vulnerable Data Leaves Dollar Vulnerable Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2010 Rating: 5
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Dollar Punished

October 14, 2010
The US dollar is getting punished; suffering steep broad based losses today. The spark that has driven the euro and sterling through their recent caps near $1.40 and $1.60 respectively, the Australian dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen to new highs and the Canadian dollar through parity, appears to have been initially triggered by unexpected tig…
Dollar Punished Dollar Punished Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2010 Rating: 5
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China Update

October 13, 2010
There are four developments in China to note today.
First, China reported that its reserves jumped to $2.65 trillion from $2.45 trillion in June. The $200 bln increase is more than the $7.1 bln in Q2 and the $48 bln in Q1 put together. The reserve growth poses a management problem for Chinese officials and an absorption problem for rest of the wor…
China Update China Update Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 13, 2010 Rating: 5
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Contrasts Weigh on Dollar

October 13, 2010
The US dollar is mostly lower as shorts get re-established after yesterday’s squeeze. The contrast between The ECB’s continued commitment to an exit strategy, leading to firmer euro zone interest rates, while the FOMC minutes underscore the Fed’s willingness to ease further was brought into stark relief yesterday, cutting short what had appeared t…
Contrasts Weigh on Dollar Contrasts Weigh on Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 13, 2010 Rating: 5
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