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European Woes, but Euro Recovery

September 28, 2010
ECB’s Stark comments are more important today that increased speculation of a downgrade in Ireland and Spain. In an unusually revealing comment, the ECB’s Stark indicated that a number of the unconventional liquidity measures that are due to expire at the end of the year will in fact do so. This is unusual because it because such policy announceme…
European Woes, but Euro Recovery European Woes, but Euro Recovery Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 28, 2010 Rating: 5
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Dollar Reverses Lower, but Consolidative Session Likely

September 28, 2010
The US dollar initially extended yesterday’s recovery, but reverse lower in Europe, despite elevated tensions in the periphery of Europe.
Optimistic comments by ECB’s Stark, seeming to signal another step on the exit strategy, German industry association seeing no threat in the current euro level may have helped fuel the euro’s recovery from the t…
Dollar Reverses Lower, but Consolidative Session Likely Dollar Reverses Lower, but Consolidative Session Likely Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 28, 2010 Rating: 5
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Euro, Yen and the S&P 500 and Interest Rates: Some Thoughts

September 27, 2010
In mid-June the dollar-yen rate was correlated with the S&P 500 nearly 91% (r2=0.909). It trended lower until the middle of August, falling to around 31% and recovered to 46% by Sept 10 and has since trended lower and now back to 31%. This is the lower end of the three-month rolling correlation has been since April when it was negative.
The lo…
Euro, Yen and the S&P 500 and Interest Rates: Some Thoughts Euro, Yen and the S&P 500 and Interest Rates:  Some Thoughts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 27, 2010 Rating: 5
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Color on the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act

September 27, 2010
The US House Ways and Means Committee approved the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act before the weekend. The full House of Representatives will vote on the measure, and likely approve it on Wed.
It then goes to the Senate. The Senate version is a bit different and would need to be reconciled with the House version, if it passed the Senate. The wo…
Color on the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act Color on the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 27, 2010 Rating: 5
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Markets Today

September 27, 2010
The news stream from Europe coincided with the technical need of a correction after the early test in Asia on the $1.35 level, which coincides with a 50% retracement of the euro’s decline in the Nov 09-May 10 period. The news stream of EC concerns, tension between those who want for central authority in Europe and those that don’t, and problems in…
Markets Today Markets Today Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 27, 2010 Rating: 5
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Thumbnail Sketch of Capital Markets on Monday

September 27, 2010
The US dollar is consolidating last week’s losses in mostly quiet turnover. The euro is the weakest of the majors. It was turned back from the test on the $1.35 area following media reports that the EC lacks confidence in three German lenders (Der Spiegel) and that focus on an unresolved fissure at the heart of Europe (Wall Street Journal).
News t…
Thumbnail Sketch of Capital Markets on Monday Thumbnail Sketch of Capital Markets on Monday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 27, 2010 Rating: 5
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Update: India, Brazil, Mexico

September 24, 2010
India: Earlier today India lifted the cap on foreign ownership of government and corporate bonds. This had been anticipated, but it runs counter to the rash of media reports suggesting that rise of beggar-thy-neighbor policies after last week's BOJ intervention. Foreign investors can now hold as much as $10 bln worth of Indian government bonds…
Update: India, Brazil, Mexico Update: India, Brazil, Mexico Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 24, 2010 Rating: 5
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Market Shrugs Off Good Durables Data and Sells Dollars

September 24, 2010
Despite the soft headline, US August durable goods orders report was stronger than expected but this has been insufficient to spur a recovery in the dollar. Nevertheless, the durable goods orders are consistent with the recent string of economic data suggesting that the US economy might be stabilizing after the disappointing Q2.
The July series wa…
Market Shrugs Off Good Durables Data and Sells Dollars Market Shrugs Off Good Durables Data and Sells Dollars Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 24, 2010 Rating: 5
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Euro Outlook: Drivers, Direction and Degree

September 24, 2010
As the third quarter winds down, it is helpful to consider the outlook for the euro-dollar exchange rate in the period ahead. Three dimensions are of particular interest, drivers, direction, and degree. We place our conclusions first, and then provide the chain of reasoning.
Conclusion After rallying about 6.25% since September 10, the euro may ent…
Euro Outlook: Drivers, Direction and Degree Euro Outlook:  Drivers, Direction and Degree Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 24, 2010 Rating: 5
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