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Things I am Going to Think About on Vacation

July 16, 2010
Like others, I try to clean off my desk before my summer vacation. This year it is particularly difficult because there seems to be several unresolved issues. I will mull them over and hopefully my subconscious will have more success than my consciousness in working through the issues.
There has been a key axis in the capital markets since late la…
Things I am Going to Think About on Vacation Things I am Going to Think About on Vacation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 16, 2010 Rating: 5
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TIC Data: No Significant Surprises

July 16, 2010
The May TIC report was largely in line with expectations. Foreign investors bought a net $35.4 bln of long-term assets, down from a revised $81.5 bln in April. Overall, including short-term securities, foreign investors bought $17.5 bln after a revised $13 bln in April.
Foreign investors bought Treasuries and Agencies, but were sellers of corporat…
TIC Data: No Significant Surprises TIC Data: No Significant Surprises Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 16, 2010 Rating: 5
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Euro, Rate Squeeze, US CPI and Japan Woes

July 16, 2010
The euro is center stage today. It is gaining on nearly all the other currencies today, including the Scandi-bloc, which had actually been the best performer in recent days. Technically the move above the 100-day moving average is thought to have spurred new model-driven demand.
In addition, there seems to be a squeeze being exerted by a sharp jum…
Euro, Rate Squeeze, US CPI and Japan Woes Euro, Rate Squeeze, US CPI and Japan Woes Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 16, 2010 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains Soft

July 16, 2010
The US dollar continues to trade heavily against the euro and yen, but it is consolidating against the other major currencies. Poor US economic data and more benign news streams from Europe continues to fuel the euro’s recovery. It is moving above its 100-day moving average for the first time since mid-Dec 09 (~$1.2917).
Ideas that China’s growth …
Dollar Remains Soft Dollar Remains Soft Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 16, 2010 Rating: 5
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Industrial Production Increase Misleading

July 15, 2010
The 0.1% rise in US industrial output in June seems to defy expectations for the first decline since mid-2009, but the headline is deceiving. Manufacturing, the key component actually fell 0.4%. The headline was flattered by a 2.7% jump in utility output. Utility output also jumped 5.4% in May. Manufacturing output was hurt by the cuts in auto out…
Industrial Production Increase Misleading Industrial Production Increase Misleading Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 15, 2010 Rating: 5
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Yen: Battle Ground--Real Investors vs Speculators

July 15, 2010
Japan's Ministry of Finance publishes portfolio flows on a weekly basis. The latest data released earlier today shows the general continuation of recent trends. Japanese investors continue to buy foreign bonds and stocks. Over the past nine week, Japanese investors have purchased roughly $87 bln of foreign bonds and $15 bln of foreign equities…
Yen: Battle Ground--Real Investors vs Speculators Yen: Battle Ground--Real Investors vs Speculators Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 15, 2010 Rating: 5
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New Day, Same Story

July 15, 2010
The news stream continues to be dollar negative. The minutes from the FOMC meeting may not have been as dovish as many had expected, but the subsequent economic data has also been disappointing. The deterioration of the May trade deficit in real terms is prompting economists to lower their Q2 GDP forecasts. Some are suggesting that the retail sale…
New Day, Same Story New Day, Same Story Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 15, 2010 Rating: 5
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