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U.S. Economic Outlook

January 29, 2010
The US economy expanded by an eye-popping 5.7% pace in Q4 09, according to the government's initial estimate, the fastest in six years. The slower pace of de stocking, contributed about 3.4 percentage points to GDP. Consumer spending rose at a 2% clip, a bit better than expected, but off the 2.8% pace seen in Q3 09 that was boosted by the cash…
U.S. Economic Outlook U.S. Economic Outlook Reviewed by magonomics on January 29, 2010 Rating: 5
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January in Retrospect, February in Prospect

January 29, 2010
One of the forces that we expected to emerge in January was an unwinding of some of the trends seen in December. This force was evident in parts of the foreign exchange market. The poorest performing currency against the dollar in December was the Japanese yen. It lost a little more than 7% in December. In January it was the best performing curren…
January in Retrospect, February in Prospect January in Retrospect, February in Prospect Reviewed by magonomics on January 29, 2010 Rating: 5
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Policy Dilemma Crystalizes in Spain

January 29, 2010
Greece has drawn investors' ire, but it is in Spain today where the policy dilemma is most stark.
Today Spain reported that its unemployment rate in Q4 rose to 18.8% from 17.9% in Q3. The consensus was for a rise toward 18.5%. The unemployment rate has doubled in the past two years. As seems to be typical in Europe, the unemployment challenge …
Policy Dilemma Crystalizes in Spain Policy Dilemma Crystalizes in Spain Reviewed by magonomics on January 29, 2010 Rating: 5
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Japan Data and Flows

January 28, 2010
In recent weeks several investment houses and observers have suggested the attractiveness of Japanese shares. It is difficult as is often the case that what came first the upgraded assessments or the flows. The fact of the matter is, drawing from MOF data, foreign investors have been net buyers of Japanese shares for nine consecutive weeks through…
Japan Data and Flows Japan Data and Flows Reviewed by magonomics on January 28, 2010 Rating: 5
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We suspect many observers are exaggerating the hawkishness of the FOMC statement We suspect many observers are exaggerating the hawkishness of the FOMC statement Reviewed by magonomics on January 28, 2010 Rating: 5
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More Thoughts on the Fed

January 27, 2010
In my first take I said nothing about Hoenig's dissent and that is what many in the market are talking about. I did not think it was all that important primarily because it was not the typical kind of dissent when the FOMC would vote to keep rates on hold and a member would disagree, wanting to say cut rates. Hoenig's dissent was over futu…
More Thoughts on the Fed More Thoughts on the Fed Reviewed by magonomics on January 27, 2010 Rating: 5
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Fed Stays the Course

January 27, 2010
The FOMC left rates on hold and in general stayed the course. The long-term asset program was not extended and conditions were such that the FOMC expected rates to remain low for an extended period of time. Surprisingly, there was one dissent on this phrase from new voting member and known hawk, Hoenig. Hoenig argued the phrase "extended peri…
Fed Stays the Course Fed Stays the Course Reviewed by magonomics on January 27, 2010 Rating: 5
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