Marc to Market

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Japanese Treasury Holdings

magonomics December 03, 2009

In the past we recommended that Japan consider using its massive reserve holdings to support the domestic economy. In particular we suggested selling 1/4 of their reserves and to finance domestic consumption. In early 2008, in response to our op-ed piece in the Financial Times, the IMF quickly argued that it did not think that Japan needed fiscal …

Japanese Treasury Holdings

Reviewed by magonomics on December 03, 2009 Rating: 5

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Mexican Peso New Highs for 2009

magonomics December 03, 2009

An upward revision in the central bank of Mexico's inflation forecasts announced yesterday propelled the peso to new highs for the year on ideas that the new forecasts are a signal of a rate hike early next year. We suspect the market, which the non-commercials (speculators) in the futures market held as of last week a net 89k long contracts, …

Mexican Peso New Highs for 2009

Reviewed by magonomics on December 03, 2009 Rating: 5

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Daimler Joins the Move to US

magonomics December 02, 2009

We have noted that the combination of the chronically weak dollar, strong productivity gains, and the threat of protectionism will likely encourage foreign companies to boost their productive capacity in the United States. A couple of Japanese auto producers have already made recent moves in this direction. Today, Germany's Daimler said it wil…

Daimler Joins the Move to US

Reviewed by magonomics on December 02, 2009 Rating: 5

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Data and Policy Mix Frustrate Attempts to Stabilize BRL

magonomics December 02, 2009

Brazil has reported FIPE inflation and Oct industrial production figures today. The former did not rise as much as expected and the latter was a stronger than expected. FIPE calculation of CPI rose 0.29% in Nov. The consensus was for a rise of 0.32%-0.34%. In Oct, it rose 0.25%. The important point here is that Brazilian inflation appears to be ba…

Data and Policy Mix Frustrate Attempts to Stabilize BRL

Reviewed by magonomics on December 02, 2009 Rating: 5

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Gulf Leaders Summit--Small Step toward Monetary Union

magonomics December 01, 2009

Yesterday we noted reasons to be skeptical of a single currency for several Latam currencies under Venezuela's leadership. We can be only slightly more optimistic about the near-term possibilities of a monetary union in the Gulf.
A Gulf leaders summit began today. Two political issues were on the opening agenda: support for Saudi Arabia over t…

Gulf Leaders Summit--Small Step toward Monetary Union

Reviewed by magonomics on December 01, 2009 Rating: 5

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Behind Better than Expected German Jobs Data

magonomics December 01, 2009

Germany reported today that November unemployment fell 7k instead of rising 5-10k as the market expected. This is the fifth consecutive month that the number of unemployed has fallen in Germany. It offers a stark contrast to the US jobs picture, where another net 125k are expected to have lost their jobs last month. But does it ?
There are two dri…

Behind Better than Expected German Jobs Data

Reviewed by magonomics on December 01, 2009 Rating: 5

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More Thinking About the Japan and the Yen

magonomics December 01, 2009

The Bank of Japan announced a new liquidity facility today of roughly JPY10 trillion in three month loans to commercial banks. The BOJ came under pressure from the DPJ government and BOJ Governor Shirakawa can be forgiven if he does not see much of a difference between the pressure brought to bear by the previous LDP government and the new DPJ adm…

More Thinking About the Japan and the Yen

Reviewed by magonomics on December 01, 2009 Rating: 5