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Thoughts About Q3 GDP

July 31, 2009
Wtih the preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP behind us, we can focus more on Q3 data. But the sharper than expected drop in Q2 inventories (of course subject to revisions)--$141.1 bln after $113.9 bln in Q1, leaves it in a good position to make a positive contribution to Q3 GDP. As long as inventories fall less than $141 bln, it will be bolster GDP, …
Thoughts About Q3 GDP Thoughts About Q3 GDP Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2009 Rating: 5
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Race to Debase?

July 31, 2009
There seems to be a rough agreement that the world economy is on the mend. Earlier this year the focus was on the turning of second derivatives, which is how some economists refer to the pace of economic contraction slowing. Increasing amounts of data from a broad array of countries suggest positive growth is at hand; the world economy seems poise…
Race to Debase? Race to Debase? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2009 Rating: 5
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Q2 Better , Flattered by Downward Revision to Q1

July 31, 2009
The US economy contracted at a 1% annualized pace in the second, a bit better than the consensus expected and Q1 was revised to -6.4% from -5.5%. Benchmark revisions reveal weaker growth on balance in the recent past as well. Consumer spending fell 1.2%, nearly twice the pace economists had expected. The net export function added 1.4 percentage…
Q2 Better , Flattered by Downward Revision to Q1 Q2 Better , Flattered by Downward Revision to Q1 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 31, 2009 Rating: 5
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$28 billion 7-yr Note Auction Amid Lukewarm Demand

July 30, 2009
The U.S. Treasury market is on its back foot today. The stars are aligned against it. Equities are posting strong gains. Recent string of economic data has been consistent with the end-of-recession story. There has been record supply hitting this week and today's 7-year note sale complete the week's operations. Demand in the 2-year an…
$28 billion 7-yr Note Auction Amid Lukewarm Demand $28 billion 7-yr Note Auction Amid Lukewarm Demand Reviewed by magonomics on July 30, 2009 Rating: 5
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Significance of IMF Comments

July 30, 2009
The euro was trading heavily even before the IMF's comments hit the wires suggesting that in the February 25-March 25 period, the single currency was over-valued by 0-15%. Although this is wide enough to be nearly meaningless substantively, the significance may lay in the shift. In recent years IMF officials were often seen on the side of thos…
Significance of IMF Comments Significance of IMF Comments Reviewed by magonomics on July 30, 2009 Rating: 5
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Beige Book: Little New, Little Reaction

July 29, 2009
The initial read of the Fed's Beige Book is ho-hum. Most districts report slower pace of economic contraction. Labor markets remain soft. Modest manufacturing recovery in 6-12 months. There were few signs of positive growth, but we would anticipate that by the end of Q3 there will be positive growth signs. The Beige Book was compiled by the Bo…
Beige Book: Little New, Little Reaction Beige Book: Little New, Little Reaction Reviewed by magonomics on July 29, 2009 Rating: 5
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More and Clearer on SNB

July 29, 2009
The earlier estimate of SNB intervention was derived from last week's data that showed that its euro holdings rose by 32 billon euros in Q2 after a 20.26 billion euro increase in Q1. Dollar holdings rose to almost $20 billon from $13.2 billion. Of course the full increase might not reflect only intervention as there may be a valuation componen…
More and Clearer on SNB More and Clearer on SNB Reviewed by magonomics on July 29, 2009 Rating: 5
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