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Thoughts on the FOMC: Ten Points

January 26, 2009
I. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee holds a two-day meeting this week, with the outcome anticipated near 2:15 pm on Wednesday, January 28. There is little doubt that the Fed funds target of 0-25 bp will be retained. The accompanying statement will receive the market’s full attention.
II. The data since the mid-Dec FOMC meeting has been dre…
Thoughts on the FOMC: Ten Points Thoughts on the FOMC: Ten Points Reviewed by magonomics on January 26, 2009 Rating: 5
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A Crisis with Chinese Characteristics

January 23, 2009
There is no doubt that the advanced industrialized countries are deep in an economic downturn. Given that consensus expectations continue to overshoot the actual data, it appears that many still do not fully appreciate the magnitude. The fact that policy makers continue to cut growth forecasts implies they too have not appreciated the depth of the…
A Crisis with Chinese Characteristics A Crisis with Chinese Characteristics Reviewed by magonomics on January 23, 2009 Rating: 5
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The Future of the Strong Dollar Policy

January 16, 2009
Shortly after Barrack Obama is sworn in next week as the 44th President of the United States, the strong dollar policy turns 14 years old. It may not be much of an exaggeration to suggest as goes Obama’s dollar policy so goes his Administration.
This is not to endorse overly simplistic notions that the dollar is like stock in America. There are a m…
The Future of the Strong Dollar Policy The Future of the Strong Dollar Policy Reviewed by magonomics on January 16, 2009 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Bullish on the Dollar CNBC: Bullish on the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 14, 2009 Rating: 5
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Feel the Elephant

January 09, 2009
There is a parable about the human condition that is particularly apropos for investors in the current investment climate characterized by high volatility and great uncertainty. Five blind men walking through the jungle stumble on an elephant. But of course they don’t know it is an elephant because they are blind. One feels the tail and say’s it i…
Feel the Elephant Feel the Elephant Reviewed by magonomics on January 09, 2009 Rating: 5
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No Exit For Japan

January 07, 2009
Early word from the G8 meeting, like the EU fin min meeting, is that officials recognize that it is premature to enact exit strategies from the emergency facilities and actions to address the economic and financial crisis.
The BOJ is the next major central bank to meet. It will hold its meeting on July 14th-15th. Its current program, which include…
No Exit For Japan No Exit For Japan Reviewed by magonomics on January 07, 2009 Rating: 5
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CNBC: Currency Outlook CNBC: Currency Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 29, 2008 Rating: 5
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The ECB Fiddles While Rome Burns

December 19, 2008
The ECB just doesn’t get it. The Federal Reserve has driven the Fed funds target to 0-25 bp. Short-term US T-bill yields have on occasion dipped below zero. As this is written, the 3-month T-bill yield is quoted at -5 bp. And still there is demand.
The ECB Fiddles While Rome Burns The ECB Fiddles While Rome Burns Reviewed by magonomics on December 19, 2008 Rating: 5
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What if the Credit Crunch is a Symptom?

December 11, 2008
Rare is a consensus among economists, the practioners of the dismal science. Yet there seems to be nearly universal agreement about the nature of the current crisis and the parallels with the Great Depression. The paralysis of the capital markets and the inability and/or unwillingness of banks to lend derailed the real economy. By word and by deed…
What if the Credit Crunch is a Symptom? What if the Credit Crunch is a Symptom? Reviewed by magonomics on December 11, 2008 Rating: 5
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