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Currency Strategies

February 29, 2008
At an estimated $3.2 trillion a day the foreign exchange market is the biggest of all the capital markets. The types of participants range from tourists and retail speculators, to institutional speculators like hedge funds and proprietary traders at banks, to hedgers like corporations and asset managers. Some view the currency market as a source o…
Currency Strategies Currency Strategies Reviewed by magonomics on February 29, 2008 Rating: 5
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National Security and the Dollar

February 22, 2008
The National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell provided his annual risk assessment recently to the Senate Intelligence Committee. In addition to the usual threats of terrorism, nuclear proliferation and the like, McConnell expressed concern about the US dollar. Such strategic concerns are misplaced and suggest that the Bush Administration co…
National Security and the Dollar National Security and the Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on February 22, 2008 Rating: 5
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This is the Rainy Day Japan's Reserves are Meant For- Published in the FT

February 22, 2008
Japan's economy is weakening, but the country will find it more problematic than other Group of Seven leading industrialized nations to deploy the orthodox policy tools they are using, or contemplating using. With interest rates already extremely low a rate cut would not seem a very effective stimulus and Japan is still experiencing a hang-ove…
This is the Rainy Day Japan's Reserves are Meant For- Published in the FT This is the Rainy Day Japan's Reserves are Meant For- Published in the FT Reviewed by magonomics on February 22, 2008 Rating: 5
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What Not to Expect from the G7 Meeting

February 06, 2008
The weekend G7 meeting is unlikely to generate fresh policy initiatives or inject a new force into the foreign exchange market. Indeed with concerns that the world’s biggest economy has begun contracting and as the world's second largest economy stumbles and the third largest economy slows, the foreign exchange market itself may not receive th…
What Not to Expect from the G7 Meeting What Not to Expect from the G7 Meeting Reviewed by magonomics on February 06, 2008 Rating: 5
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The Dollar: Takes a beating, Can it Keep on Ticking

February 01, 2008
The market has been inundated with a steady stream of dollar negative news. The Federal Reserve has slashed its funds rate target by 125 bp over the past ten days or so. Fourth quarter growth was about half of what the consensus expected. The New Year has begun poorly with the US actually shedding jobs for the first time in over four years. In fac…
The Dollar: Takes a beating, Can it Keep on Ticking The Dollar: Takes a beating, Can it Keep on Ticking Reviewed by magonomics on February 01, 2008 Rating: 5
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Short and Shallow or Long and Deep

January 25, 2008
The combination of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts and Washington’s fiscal stimulus would suggest officials believe a recession has begun. The media also seems to be playing up the recession story. It would seem like a forgone conclusion, but it is not, no matter how loud the talking heads on TV scream about it or how many times the word rece…
Short and Shallow or Long and Deep Short and Shallow or Long and Deep Reviewed by magonomics on January 25, 2008 Rating: 5
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G7 Economies are Slowing But Japan is in a Real Pickle

January 18, 2008
There is little doubt that the G7 economies are slowing. Recession fears have mounted the most in the US, where policymakers are responding with both monetary and fiscal stimulus. Canada has eased monetary policy and will most likely do so again next week. There has been some fiscal assistance to local governments where the economy depends on a si…
G7 Economies are Slowing But Japan is in a Real Pickle G7 Economies are Slowing But Japan is in a Real Pickle Reviewed by magonomics on January 18, 2008 Rating: 5
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The Elusive Meaning of Jargon

January 11, 2008
Frequently the cottage industry, that includes journalists and economists, come up with post hoc explanations for economic phenomenon, using words and phrases which after a while lose much of their original significance. Examples last year included yen-carry trades and risk-aversion. Now the words recession and stagflation are being bandied about,…
The Elusive Meaning of Jargon The Elusive Meaning of Jargon Reviewed by magonomics on January 11, 2008 Rating: 5
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A More Sanguine View as the Dust Settles

December 14, 2007
The doom and gloom directed toward the US seems exaggerated. Warnings that the Fed has lost its credibility, that the dollar was losing its status as a reserve currency and that the US economy was stagnating here in Q4 all seem to be misplaced.
A More Sanguine View as the Dust Settles A More Sanguine View as the Dust Settles Reviewed by magonomics on December 14, 2007 Rating: 5
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