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China and the Dollar, Thunder but no Rain

August 10, 2007
Only the suggestion that China could use its vast US dollar holdings to influence American policy managed to rival the dramatic developments in the capital markets for the attention of investors and the media. Of all the things that investors and policy makers have to worry about, China’s dollar holdings should keep any one up at night.
China and the Dollar, Thunder but no Rain China and the Dollar, Thunder but no Rain Reviewed by magonomics on August 10, 2007 Rating: 5
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The Long and Short of It: Outlook for the Dollar

August 08, 2007
The US multi-year down trend is over. The process we described as “carving out a bottom” has been completed. Recent days have been a watershed, but it has been a long time in the making. The dollar bottomed against the British pound and Canadian dollar (half of the G7 currencies) last November, as the Federal Reserve expanded its lending facilitie…
The Long and Short of It: Outlook for the Dollar The Long and Short of It: Outlook for the Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on August 08, 2007 Rating: 5
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Upper House Elections in Japan and the Yen

July 26, 2007
Japan goes to the polls on July 29 to elect half of the upper chamber of the Diet called the House of Councilors. The Liberal Democrat Party, the main political party in Japan, with the New Komeito Party, is unlikely to hold on to their slim majority. However, barring a horrific showing which forces the LDP to dissolve the lower house and call for…
Upper House Elections in Japan and the Yen Upper House Elections in Japan and the Yen Reviewed by magonomics on July 26, 2007 Rating: 5
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What it Takes for the Dollar to Recover

July 20, 2007
Clearly any recovery in the dollar requires someone to buy it. It may be a worthwhile exercise to consider who would buy the dollar. Among short-term players, using the IMM Commitment of Traders, anecdotal and proprietary data, speculators have amassed a large short dollar position. The net short US dollar positions in the futures market stand nea…
What it Takes for the Dollar to Recover What it Takes for the Dollar to Recover Reviewed by magonomics on July 20, 2007 Rating: 5
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The Word is Resilience

July 13, 2007
Even with the disappointing US June retail sales report, the take away point from recent developments is the all-round resilience of everything, but the US dollar.
The Word is Resilience The Word is Resilience Reviewed by magonomics on July 13, 2007 Rating: 5
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The Rise of Retail

July 06, 2007
The global capital markets are usually understood to be the domain of large pools of capital and institutions. Mergers and acquisitions are increasing the consolidation and concentration in the financial sector. While this is clearly one theme, there is a second one that runs in the opposite direction. For various reasons, there has been an increa…
The Rise of Retail The Rise of Retail Reviewed by magonomics on July 06, 2007 Rating: 5
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Ten Years After

June 29, 2007
The tenth anniversary of the Asian financial crisis is a cause for celebration. Aluminum is traditionally associated with ten-year anniversaries, and it seems to appropriately capture the essence of the changes that have transpired since the crisis.
Ten Years After Ten Years After Reviewed by magonomics on June 29, 2007 Rating: 5
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The Incredible Shrinking Yen

June 22, 2007
Can nothing stop the yen from falling? It is the worst performing major currency against the dollar over the past week, losing almost 0.5% and 1.8% so far this month. It is trading at multi-year lows against other major currencies besides the dollar, like the euro, sterling and the Swiss franc. Its weakness against the New Zealand dollar has frust…
The Incredible Shrinking Yen The Incredible Shrinking Yen Reviewed by magonomics on June 22, 2007 Rating: 5
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IMF takes a Major Step without Fanfare

June 19, 2007
Yesterday, the IMF announced its first update of its foreign exchange surveillance mechanism in three decades. Aside from some media coverage, which was generally descriptive in nature, there was little fanfare. Yet there seems to be potentially far-reaching implications that have yet to be grasped.
IMF takes a Major Step without Fanfare IMF takes a Major Step without Fanfare Reviewed by magonomics on June 19, 2007 Rating: 5
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