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The Long and Short of It: Outlook for the Dollar

magonomics August 08, 2007

The US multi-year down trend is over. The process we described as “carving out a bottom” has been completed. Recent days have been a watershed, but it has been a long time in the making. The dollar bottomed against the British pound and Canadian dollar (half of the G7 currencies) last November, as the Federal Reserve expanded its lending facilitie…

The Long and Short of It: Outlook for the Dollar

Reviewed by magonomics on August 08, 2007 Rating: 5

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Upper House Elections in Japan and the Yen

magonomics July 26, 2007

Japan goes to the polls on July 29 to elect half of the upper chamber of the Diet called the House of Councilors. The Liberal Democrat Party, the main political party in Japan, with the New Komeito Party, is unlikely to hold on to their slim majority. However, barring a horrific showing which forces the LDP to dissolve the lower house and call for…

Upper House Elections in Japan and the Yen

Reviewed by magonomics on July 26, 2007 Rating: 5

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What it Takes for the Dollar to Recover

magonomics July 20, 2007

Clearly any recovery in the dollar requires someone to buy it. It may be a worthwhile exercise to consider who would buy the dollar. Among short-term players, using the IMM Commitment of Traders, anecdotal and proprietary data, speculators have amassed a large short dollar position. The net short US dollar positions in the futures market stand nea…

What it Takes for the Dollar to Recover

Reviewed by magonomics on July 20, 2007 Rating: 5

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The Word is Resilience

magonomics July 13, 2007

Even with the disappointing US June retail sales report, the take away point from recent developments is the all-round resilience of everything, but the US dollar.

The Word is Resilience

Reviewed by magonomics on July 13, 2007 Rating: 5

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The Rise of Retail

magonomics July 06, 2007

The global capital markets are usually understood to be the domain of large pools of capital and institutions. Mergers and acquisitions are increasing the consolidation and concentration in the financial sector. While this is clearly one theme, there is a second one that runs in the opposite direction. For various reasons, there has been an increa…

The Rise of Retail

Reviewed by magonomics on July 06, 2007 Rating: 5