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IMF takes a Major Step without Fanfare

June 19, 2007
Yesterday, the IMF announced its first update of its foreign exchange surveillance mechanism in three decades. Aside from some media coverage, which was generally descriptive in nature, there was little fanfare. Yet there seems to be potentially far-reaching implications that have yet to be grasped.
IMF takes a Major Step without Fanfare IMF takes a Major Step without Fanfare Reviewed by magonomics on June 19, 2007 Rating: 5
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Testing Hypotheses

June 15, 2007
One of the criticisms often levied against the social sciences is that they cannot conduct experiments like the natural sciences. Yet, experimentation is not possible in all of the hard sciences, like parts of physics or astronomy. Even if experimentation is difficult in the social sciences, hypotheses can still be tested.
Testing Hypotheses Testing Hypotheses Reviewed by magonomics on June 15, 2007 Rating: 5
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Is the End Nigh?

June 08, 2007
There has been a significant change in perceptions of the investment climate. Many have now recognized that far from slipping into a recession, the world’s biggest economy is accelerating. Rather than the prospect of lower interest rates, in the US, for the first time in a year, our warning that the Federal Reserve may still need to raise rates is…
Is the End Nigh? Is the End Nigh? Reviewed by magonomics on June 08, 2007 Rating: 5
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Alchemy: Oil and Water into Food

May 30, 2007
The incredible rally in a broad range of commodity prices has captured the imagination of many and is creating a cruel dilemma for policy makers who need to be concerned about inflation even as economic momentum wanes. The April G7 statement seemed to recognize that the volatility of the dollar may be aggravating the move and prompted them to seek…
Alchemy: Oil and Water into Food Alchemy: Oil and Water into Food Reviewed by magonomics on May 30, 2007 Rating: 5
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The Fate of the G8 and China

May 18, 2007
The market has long regarded the periodic G8 meetings as largely photo opportunities. It has been nearly two decades since monetary policy was coordinated. Although it appeared to provide a useful forum for coordination of attempts to curb the financing of terrorism, it may have outlived its usefulness as currently conceived. Like the weighted vot…
The Fate of the G8 and China The Fate of the G8 and China Reviewed by magonomics on May 18, 2007 Rating: 5
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Why the Fed is Right and the Market Wrong

May 07, 2007
There is an epic struggle going on between the Federal Reserve and the markets. The Federal Reserve has been very clear of its views. Growth will pick up later this year as the main headwinds fade. Price pressures, while elavated, will likely moderate. It sees the main risk to this benign scenario is that inflation does not ease.
Why the Fed is Right and the Market Wrong Why the Fed is Right and the Market Wrong Reviewed by magonomics on May 07, 2007 Rating: 5
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Currency Bulls Still in Driver's Seat

May 04, 2007
Since early March there has been a clear trend toward a lower US dollar. Made vulnerable by the extended positioning, and frustrated by the stalling of downside momentum, the stronger than expected ISM data provided the spark for a bout of short-covering. The dollar’s recovery was been cut short by the weaker than expected US employment data.
Currency Bulls Still in Driver's Seat Currency Bulls Still in Driver's Seat Reviewed by magonomics on May 04, 2007 Rating: 5
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