Marc to Market

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The Fate of the G8 and China

magonomics May 18, 2007

The market has long regarded the periodic G8 meetings as largely photo opportunities. It has been nearly two decades since monetary policy was coordinated. Although it appeared to provide a useful forum for coordination of attempts to curb the financing of terrorism, it may have outlived its usefulness as currently conceived. Like the weighted vot…

The Fate of the G8 and China

Reviewed by magonomics on May 18, 2007 Rating: 5

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Why the Fed is Right and the Market Wrong

magonomics May 07, 2007

There is an epic struggle going on between the Federal Reserve and the markets. The Federal Reserve has been very clear of its views. Growth will pick up later this year as the main headwinds fade. Price pressures, while elavated, will likely moderate. It sees the main risk to this benign scenario is that inflation does not ease.

Why the Fed is Right and the Market Wrong

Reviewed by magonomics on May 07, 2007 Rating: 5

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Currency Bulls Still in Driver's Seat

magonomics May 04, 2007

Since early March there has been a clear trend toward a lower US dollar. Made vulnerable by the extended positioning, and frustrated by the stalling of downside momentum, the stronger than expected ISM data provided the spark for a bout of short-covering. The dollar’s recovery was been cut short by the weaker than expected US employment data.

Currency Bulls Still in Driver's Seat

Reviewed by magonomics on May 04, 2007 Rating: 5

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The Dollar and Stocks- Don't Confuse 'em

magonomics April 27, 2007

The US dollar’s downtrend appears to have reached a point that it has entered the public’s consciousness, judging from the media’s attention. Such level of interest often seems to come after a protracted trend is in place, rather than in anticipation of a significant move. The dollar’s move has also captured the imagination of many equity traders …

The Dollar and Stocks- Don't Confuse 'em

Reviewed by magonomics on April 27, 2007 Rating: 5

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Making Cents of the Dollar

magonomics April 20, 2007

There is modest run on the US dollar in underway. Over the past month, the greenback has lost nearly 5.5% against the New Zealand dollar, 4% against the Australian dollar, 3% against the Canadian dollar, more than 2% against sterling and the euro. By contrast, the yen has under-performed, losing more than 1% against the dollar. The dollar appears …

Making Cents of the Dollar

Reviewed by magonomics on April 20, 2007 Rating: 5

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Europe is 50, But not Middle Aged

magonomics March 23, 2007

It is 50-years this week that six countries, France, West Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg signed the Treaty of Rome and founded the European Economic Community. And so began in earnest the process that has culminated in the creation of the European Union and a shared currency for 15 of the members. Just because it is 50, though…

Europe is 50, But not Middle Aged

Reviewed by magonomics on March 23, 2007 Rating: 5

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Q2: Make it or Break it

magonomics March 20, 2007

As the first quarter wound down, one of the key features for policy makers and investors has been an increase in uncertainty. Much of the uncertainty may be resolved in the period ahead. In many ways, what happens in the second quarter may very well set the tone for the remainder of the year.

Q2: Make it or Break it

Reviewed by magonomics on March 20, 2007 Rating: 5

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The Balance of Imbalances

magonomics March 16, 2007

There have been numerous Cassandra-like calls warning that global imbalances pose the largest risk to the world economy. Some observers will even place these imbalances at the heart of their explanation for the spasms in the market. There are only two problems with this view: the theory and the facts.

The Balance of Imbalances

Reviewed by magonomics on March 16, 2007 Rating: 5

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Jack Bauer, Risk-Aversity, and the Dollar

magonomics March 02, 2007

A common cultural theme, found even in the Bible, is the complicated relationship between fathers and sons. Star Wars, which pits Luke Skywalker against Darthvader, who, in a later episode, we learn is Luke’s father, celebrates its 30th anniversary this year. It was an exciting, even if not new, twist that many boys, of various ages also found lib…

Jack Bauer, Risk-Aversity, and the Dollar

Reviewed by magonomics on March 02, 2007 Rating: 5