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BOJ Hilkes, Market Yawns

February 21, 2007
The Bank of Japan raised the overnight call rate by 25 bp to 0.50% and the yen sold off. Expectations had been nearly evenly divided. Early in the session, Japanese media reported that BOJ Governor Fukui had proposed a rate hike. The market reacted by taking the dollar from JPY120.50 to JPY119.75. The dollar had then stabilized until the actual an…
BOJ Hilkes, Market Yawns BOJ Hilkes, Market Yawns Reviewed by magonomics on February 21, 2007 Rating: 5
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Fading of the Home Bias: The Unappreciated Story

February 16, 2007
Investors have traditionally shown a preference for their own markets. This is perfectly understandable. Invest in what you know best, is often the advice of professionals. However, liberalization of capital markets and the pursuit of better returns have seen the home-bias fade. This is especially noteworthy in Japan, one of the world’s largest cr…
Fading of the Home Bias: The Unappreciated Story Fading of the Home Bias: The Unappreciated Story Reviewed by magonomics on February 16, 2007 Rating: 5
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Gaming G7

February 09, 2007
Over the last couple of weeks we have consistently argued that the European finance ministers were setting up the market for disappointment if the G7 statement does not single out Japan or express concern over the weakness of the yen. We had thought such disappointment would hit the yen hard. However, the price action has been such where we now su…
Gaming G7 Gaming G7 Reviewed by magonomics on February 09, 2007 Rating: 5
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Eyes on the Prize: Yuan not Yen

February 05, 2007
There is much focus on the upcoming G7 meeting. European finance ministers have bemoaned the yen’s weakness. The US policy toward China prevents it from being sympathetic towards Europe’s concerns.
Eyes on the Prize: Yuan not Yen Eyes on the Prize: Yuan not Yen Reviewed by magonomics on February 05, 2007 Rating: 5
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Currencies Should Reflect Fundamentals, I love Mom, and Apple Pie

January 26, 2007
Who can disagree with such platitudes? And yet officials appear to think they are saying something substantive when they say foreign exchange prices should reflect fundamentals. Of course they should. Can they do anything but reflect fundamentals? The issue is not fundamentals versus something else, but which set of fundamentals.
Currencies Should Reflect Fundamentals, I love Mom, and Apple Pie Currencies Should Reflect Fundamentals, I love Mom, and Apple Pie Reviewed by magonomics on January 26, 2007 Rating: 5
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Knowing the Known

January 19, 2007
Over the past six weeks, foreign exchange and short-term interest rate markets have made significant adjustments. The way that prices have responded to the latest economic data warns that this adjustment process is largely complete. This suggests a period of consolidation likely lies ahead, during which some of the recent trends may retrace. At th…
Knowing the Known Knowing the Known Reviewed by magonomics on January 19, 2007 Rating: 5
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Central Banks, Surprises and Otherwise

January 12, 2007
In our age of transparency, monitoring the signals from the major central banks is not a full time occupation. Wall Street used to hire people whose sole job was to mine the data and official comments for clues into policy. Such people now are among the endangered species. When one wants to contemplate the Federal Reserve’s next move, one can cons…
Central Banks, Surprises and Otherwise Central Banks, Surprises and Otherwise Reviewed by magonomics on January 12, 2007 Rating: 5
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Poor Conjugation: US Economy and the Dollar

January 05, 2007
The U.S. jobs data caps a string of impressive data that should but probably won’t silence the pessimists. Already the unseasonably warm weather is being cited by some to dismiss the recent stability of new and existing home sales and the stronger than expected employment data. It is unlikely that one of the biggest bond fund managers will change …
Poor Conjugation: US Economy and the Dollar Poor Conjugation: US Economy and the Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on January 05, 2007 Rating: 5
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Seven Stories in Double - O Seven

December 22, 2006
Re-acceleration of the US economy Many economists and US debt traders and foreign exchange traders are pessimistic about the outlook for the US economy. However, the equity market, the narrowness of credit spreads, like corporate bond yields over Treasuries or emerging market debt over Treasuries, would seem to agree with the Federal Reserve and ot…
Seven Stories in Double - O Seven Seven Stories in Double - O Seven Reviewed by magonomics on December 22, 2006 Rating: 5
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