Marc to Market

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Currencies Should Reflect Fundamentals, I love Mom, and Apple Pie

magonomics January 26, 2007

Who can disagree with such platitudes? And yet officials appear to think they are saying something substantive when they say foreign exchange prices should reflect fundamentals. Of course they should. Can they do anything but reflect fundamentals? The issue is not fundamentals versus something else, but which set of fundamentals.

Currencies Should Reflect Fundamentals, I love Mom, and Apple Pie

Reviewed by magonomics on January 26, 2007 Rating: 5

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Knowing the Known

magonomics January 19, 2007

Over the past six weeks, foreign exchange and short-term interest rate markets have made significant adjustments. The way that prices have responded to the latest economic data warns that this adjustment process is largely complete. This suggests a period of consolidation likely lies ahead, during which some of the recent trends may retrace. At th…

Knowing the Known

Reviewed by magonomics on January 19, 2007 Rating: 5

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Central Banks, Surprises and Otherwise

magonomics January 12, 2007

In our age of transparency, monitoring the signals from the major central banks is not a full time occupation. Wall Street used to hire people whose sole job was to mine the data and official comments for clues into policy. Such people now are among the endangered species. When one wants to contemplate the Federal Reserve’s next move, one can cons…

Central Banks, Surprises and Otherwise

Reviewed by magonomics on January 12, 2007 Rating: 5

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Poor Conjugation: US Economy and the Dollar

magonomics January 05, 2007

The U.S. jobs data caps a string of impressive data that should but probably won’t silence the pessimists. Already the unseasonably warm weather is being cited by some to dismiss the recent stability of new and existing home sales and the stronger than expected employment data. It is unlikely that one of the biggest bond fund managers will change …

Poor Conjugation: US Economy and the Dollar

Reviewed by magonomics on January 05, 2007 Rating: 5

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Seven Stories in Double - O Seven

magonomics December 22, 2006

Re-acceleration of the US economy Many economists and US debt traders and foreign exchange traders are pessimistic about the outlook for the US economy. However, the equity market, the narrowness of credit spreads, like corporate bond yields over Treasuries or emerging market debt over Treasuries, would seem to agree with the Federal Reserve and ot…

Seven Stories in Double - O Seven

Reviewed by magonomics on December 22, 2006 Rating: 5

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Trust but Verify

magonomics December 01, 2006

There is a battle going on between the Federal Reserve and the market. It is over the outlook for the economy and the appropriate monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve position is clear. As it expected, the economy has slowed. However, as Chairman Bernanke said recently: “Outside housing and motor vehicle sectors, economic activity has, on balance, …

Trust but Verify

Reviewed by magonomics on December 01, 2006 Rating: 5

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Dollar Down, but Bears may be Over-reaching

magonomics November 24, 2006

A run on the US dollar is underway. While momentum suggests there is scope for additional near-term losses, the risk is the dollar bears are getting ahead of themselves, Rather than jump aboard what appears to be a southbound dollar express, traders might be better advised to take some profits and wait for the next train. Money managers and corpor…

Dollar Down, but Bears may be Over-reaching

Reviewed by magonomics on November 24, 2006 Rating: 5