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Trust but Verify

December 01, 2006
There is a battle going on between the Federal Reserve and the market. It is over the outlook for the economy and the appropriate monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve position is clear. As it expected, the economy has slowed. However, as Chairman Bernanke said recently: “Outside housing and motor vehicle sectors, economic activity has, on balance, …
Trust but Verify Trust but Verify Reviewed by magonomics on December 01, 2006 Rating: 5
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Dollar Down, but Bears may be Over-reaching

November 24, 2006
A run on the US dollar is underway. While momentum suggests there is scope for additional near-term losses, the risk is the dollar bears are getting ahead of themselves, Rather than jump aboard what appears to be a southbound dollar express, traders might be better advised to take some profits and wait for the next train. Money managers and corpor…
Dollar Down, but Bears may be Over-reaching Dollar Down, but Bears may be Over-reaching Reviewed by magonomics on November 24, 2006 Rating: 5
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Risks Mounting In Turkey

November 08, 2006
Turkey faces only two challenges: politics and economics. These are conspiring to increase the downside risks of the Turkish lira. The news today is that the EC has put off until next month the decision to break off membership negotiations with Turkey There are two main areas of concern. The first is Turkey's refusal to open its ports to Cypri…
Risks Mounting In Turkey Risks Mounting In Turkey Reviewed by magonomics on November 08, 2006 Rating: 5
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Trust and The Canadain Dollar

November 03, 2006
The main shock in recent days was the announcement from Canada’s Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty, that the trust form of corporate organization would no longer enjoy its tax exempt status. This was a bolt from the blue. This past spring Flaherty promised that the coalition government would not tamper with the trust’s status. The previous Liberal go…
Trust and The Canadain Dollar Trust and The Canadain Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on November 03, 2006 Rating: 5
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November 7th and the Dollar

October 27, 2006
Well aware that the US holds midterm elections on November 7 and that most polls suggest the Democratic Party may garner a majority in the House of Representatives and could get control of the Senate as well, investors have nonetheless taken a favorable look at US assets. The equity market has rallied strongly, with new record highs being recorded…
November 7th and the Dollar November 7th and the Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on October 27, 2006 Rating: 5
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The Dollar Saga: Where we are now

October 20, 2006
The US dollar’s price action in recent days has been significant. Essentially, this week’s developments indicate that the greenback’s recent advance is probably exhausted and a new period of weakness will likely unfold. Yet to be clear, in the bigger picture, what we are talking about is a move from the upper end of its 5-6 month trading range to …
The Dollar Saga: Where we are now The Dollar Saga: Where we are now Reviewed by magonomics on October 20, 2006 Rating: 5
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Is the Dollar Still Range Bound?

October 06, 2006
The last several weeks have been particularly difficult for short-term players in the foreign exchange market. Many have been chopped up as narrow ranges have prevailed—selling lows and buying the highs betting on a breakout which did not materialize. The US dollar appeared to break higher after a knee-jerk drop after news the job creation in Sept…
Is the Dollar Still Range Bound? Is the Dollar Still Range Bound? Reviewed by magonomics on October 06, 2006 Rating: 5
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Forces that Reflate

September 15, 2006
Over the past several weeks the US dollar has been largely confined to well worn ranges against the major foreign currencies. The equilibrium implied by range trading environment might be giving investors a false sense of security. There are a number of developments in other markets that warn that the calm in the foreign exchange market might not …
Forces that Reflate Forces that Reflate Reviewed by magonomics on September 15, 2006 Rating: 5
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G7: Lots of Thunder, Little Rain

September 08, 2006
Encouraged by French and German comments implying concern about the weakness of the yen, next week’s G7 and IMF meetings are taking on new significance in the foreign exchange market. Given the heightened uncertainty, speculative players are likely to continue to reduce their exposures in the days ahead. This means that the risk is on the dollar’s…
G7: Lots of Thunder, Little Rain G7: Lots of Thunder, Little Rain Reviewed by magonomics on September 08, 2006 Rating: 5
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