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Where in the World are the Bond Vigilantes?

magonomics August 16, 2006

Investors and speculators have sometimes acted to impose financial discipline when they have concluded that officials are being too lax. The economist Ed Yardeni coined the name “bond vigilantes” to describe such participants when they are doing this. With the third year of a strong global expansion, rising commodity prices and nearly every countr…

Where in the World are the Bond Vigilantes?

Reviewed by magonomics on August 16, 2006 Rating: 5

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Beware the Ides of August

magonomics August 11, 2006

The historic significance of August 15 tends to be under appreciated. It is the day in 1620 that the Mayflower set sail from Southampton with 102 Pilgrims aboard that were destined to change the world. As they celebrated their anniversary 15 years late, the Plymouth colony was hit by its first hurricane. In 1914 the Panama Canal opened, which was …

Beware the Ides of August

Reviewed by magonomics on August 11, 2006 Rating: 5

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Curiouser and Curiouser

magonomics July 28, 2006

In response to the disappointing preliminary Q2, the market took bond yields lower and the dollar with it. The market downgraded the likelihood of a Fed hike on August 8. Indicative pricing in the Fed funds futures market implies the odds of a hike have fallen to about a 33% chance, the lowest since mid-June and well off the 85% chance seen at the…

Curiouser and Curiouser

Reviewed by magonomics on July 28, 2006 Rating: 5

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Bernanke Preview

magonomics July 18, 2006

Given the heightened uncertainty about the near-term outlook for US monetary policy, this week’s semi-annual congressional testimony by the Federal Reserve Chairman will be closely scrutinized for clues. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony before Congress this week is looked.
The risk is that the market is disappointed. F…

Bernanke Preview

Reviewed by magonomics on July 18, 2006 Rating: 5

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Could Bernanke be Dollar Negative?

magonomics July 14, 2006

The US dollar has recovered nicely from the sell-off that culminated in the immediate aftermath of the disappointing jobs data at the start of the month. These gains were scored despite the movement of interest rate differentials against the US. The fact that the premium the US offers over the euro-zone has narrowed also means that US debt instrum…

Could Bernanke be Dollar Negative?

Reviewed by magonomics on July 14, 2006 Rating: 5