Marc to Market

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Inflation Pause at the Fed's Pause

magonomics May 19, 2006

Over the past six months, we have warned that the market has consistently under-estimated the magnitude and duration of the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening cycle. Unwaveringly we forecast Fed funds to be at least at 5.5% by the end of this year and we recognized upside risks to our scenario. We had thought that the Fed would pause in June an…

Inflation Pause at the Fed's Pause

Reviewed by magonomics on May 19, 2006 Rating: 5

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Rising Sun or Just Another Day?

magonomics April 07, 2006

Japan is emerging from an economic period that is largely comparable with the US Great Depression. The Bank of Japan has signaled an end to its quantitative easing strategy under which it provided something on the magnitude of 5-6 times the amount of liquidity Japanese banks required. It has slowly begun reducing that excess liquidity.
The gradual …

Rising Sun or Just Another Day?

Reviewed by magonomics on April 07, 2006 Rating: 5

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Capital Thoughts as Q1 Winds Down

magonomics March 24, 2006

The first quarter is winding down. For most investors it has been a good quarter. The performance of the US stock indices have risen more than they did all last year. Major bourses in Continental European bourses, like Germany, France, and Italy rose 10% thus far. The UK’s FTSE posted a respectable 7% gain. Japan’s Nikkei was rallied nearly 40% in…

Capital Thoughts as Q1 Winds Down

Reviewed by magonomics on March 24, 2006 Rating: 5

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Don't Discount the Dollar

magonomics March 17, 2006

The US dollar has fallen about 2.25% against the euro and the yen over the past week, its poorest weekly performance in a couple of months. Every one has their own pet theory to explain the move, but the risk is that the move has been exaggerated and that a more stable dollar tone will emerge in the coming days.
Many explanations of the dollar’s sl…

Don't Discount the Dollar

Reviewed by magonomics on March 17, 2006 Rating: 5

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The Dollar and Emerging Markets - Is the Rally Over?

magonomics March 10, 2006

As the first quarter winds down, the sharp rise in G7 interest rates, especially in the US and Europe, and expectations of future tightening of monetary policy, have undermined equity markets and sparked a violent sell-off in many emerging markets.
There are two key concerns for investors. The first relates to the outlook for the US dollar. Can the…

The Dollar and Emerging Markets - Is the Rally Over?

Reviewed by magonomics on March 10, 2006 Rating: 5