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Don't Discount the Dollar

March 17, 2006
The US dollar has fallen about 2.25% against the euro and the yen over the past week, its poorest weekly performance in a couple of months. Every one has their own pet theory to explain the move, but the risk is that the move has been exaggerated and that a more stable dollar tone will emerge in the coming days.
Many explanations of the dollar’s sl…
Don't Discount the Dollar Don't Discount the Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on March 17, 2006 Rating: 5
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The Dollar and Emerging Markets - Is the Rally Over?

March 10, 2006
As the first quarter winds down, the sharp rise in G7 interest rates, especially in the US and Europe, and expectations of future tightening of monetary policy, have undermined equity markets and sparked a violent sell-off in many emerging markets.
There are two key concerns for investors. The first relates to the outlook for the US dollar. Can the…
The Dollar and Emerging Markets - Is the Rally Over? The Dollar and Emerging Markets - Is the Rally Over? Reviewed by magonomics on March 10, 2006 Rating: 5
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New Dollar Update

February 28, 2006
The bullish dollar case I argued remains intact as February draws to a close. The bull case was based on a conviction of the underlying resilience of the US economy, which in turn would prompt more Fed tightening that the market appreciated. Widening interest rate differentials would lend support to the greenback.
At the end of last year, the marke…
New Dollar Update New Dollar Update Reviewed by magonomics on February 28, 2006 Rating: 5
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Great Another G8

February 10, 2006
Hosted by Russia, the leading industrialized nations will meet this weekend. There is no reason to expect new initiatives that would impact the global capital markets and especially the foreign exchange market. Energy and Iran appear more salient for policy makers than the markets per se.
There was trial balloon floated by the US for the IMF to tak…
Great Another G8 Great Another G8 Reviewed by magonomics on February 10, 2006 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bull Case Updated

February 03, 2006
Last week we outlined a bullish case for the US dollar. It was predicated on US economic data confirming that the soft Q4 05 GDP was a fluke and that the economy was off to a sufficiently robust start of the year to absorb more the diminishing slack in the economy. This in turn would compel the market to re-think the likely trajectory of Fed tight…
Dollar Bull Case Updated Dollar Bull Case Updated Reviewed by magonomics on February 03, 2006 Rating: 5
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