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New Dollar Update

February 28, 2006
The bullish dollar case I argued remains intact as February draws to a close. The bull case was based on a conviction of the underlying resilience of the US economy, which in turn would prompt more Fed tightening that the market appreciated. Widening interest rate differentials would lend support to the greenback.
At the end of last year, the marke…
New Dollar Update New Dollar Update Reviewed by magonomics on February 28, 2006 Rating: 5
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Great Another G8

February 10, 2006
Hosted by Russia, the leading industrialized nations will meet this weekend. There is no reason to expect new initiatives that would impact the global capital markets and especially the foreign exchange market. Energy and Iran appear more salient for policy makers than the markets per se.
There was trial balloon floated by the US for the IMF to tak…
Great Another G8 Great  Another G8 Reviewed by magonomics on February 10, 2006 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bull Case Updated

February 03, 2006
Last week we outlined a bullish case for the US dollar. It was predicated on US economic data confirming that the soft Q4 05 GDP was a fluke and that the economy was off to a sufficiently robust start of the year to absorb more the diminishing slack in the economy. This in turn would compel the market to re-think the likely trajectory of Fed tight…
Dollar Bull Case Updated Dollar Bull Case Updated Reviewed by magonomics on February 03, 2006 Rating: 5
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The Bull Case for the Dollar

January 27, 2006
The disappointing Q4 2005 US GDP report and the subsequent dollar decline is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the market. In fact, there are good reasons to expect the US dollar to strengthen in the days ahead.
The 1.1% pace of growth in Q4 2005 was the slowest since Q1 03 and breaks the string of 10 consecutive quarters of 3%+ growth. Neverthe…
The Bull Case for the Dollar The Bull Case for the Dollar Reviewed by magonomics on January 27, 2006 Rating: 5
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Hot and Cold Money

January 20, 2006
There may be a general misunderstanding about two issues regarding capital mobility that emerged this week. The first involves how East Asia is coping with the deluge of foreign investment flowing into the region’s equity markets. The second is the apparent Iranian decision to move their investments out of Europe for fear that if sanctions are imp…
Hot and Cold Money Hot and Cold Money Reviewed by magonomics on January 20, 2006 Rating: 5
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Two New Currency Products

January 17, 2006
The foreign exchange market is primarily an over-the-counter market. The $2 trillion a day market is conducted primarily over telephone and computer lines, with banks still the primarily market makers. However, anecdotal reports suggest that there has been a surge of interest in the foreign exchange market over the past couple of years. Due to the…
Two New Currency Products Two New Currency Products Reviewed by magonomics on January 17, 2006 Rating: 5
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The View From 10,000 Feet

January 13, 2006
The New Year has begun with a bang. Global equities have rallied. Bond markets have generally firmed. The dollar has slipped against most of the major currencies and regional Asian currencies. Emerging market currencies in general are off to a good start, led by the South African rand (+~5%) and the Brazilian real (+~3%).
The View From 10,000 Feet The View From 10,000 Feet Reviewed by magonomics on January 13, 2006 Rating: 5
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Corporate Bond Offerings: A Source of Dollar Demand in 2006

January 03, 2006
We have generally played down the significance of the tax holiday given to US corporations for repatriating offshore earnings in explaining the US dollar’s rally in 2005. For a number of risk-management reasons, US companies tend to keep the vast majority of their overseas earnings in dollar-denominated instruments. Nevertheless, because the law i…
Corporate Bond Offerings: A Source of Dollar Demand in 2006 Corporate Bond Offerings: A Source of Dollar Demand in 2006 Reviewed by magonomics on January 03, 2006 Rating: 5
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Dollar Hurdles in the Week Ahead

December 09, 2005
The US dollar faces several head winds in the days ahead that will likely conspire to cause it to fall in the days ahead.
The technical and fundamental tone of the dollar has deteriorated in recent sessions and further losses are likely in the week ahead. The fact that dollar was not bought on either goods news from the U.S. or poor news from Euro…
Dollar Hurdles in the Week Ahead Dollar Hurdles in the Week Ahead Reviewed by magonomics on December 09, 2005 Rating: 5
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