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Inflation

August 06, 2022
(Traveling and unable to provide a technical overview this week.) Rising price pressures, stronger and more persistent than generally expected, has been the main challenge for consumers, businesses, and policymakers. It will stay top of mind in the week ahead as both the world's two largest economies, the US and China, report July consumer and…
Inflation Inflation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 06, 2022 Rating: 5
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What to Expect from the World Bank and IMF

April 13, 2020
The spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF will be held virtually this week amid a profound economic crisis spurred by a novel coronavirus.  Unlike previous such viruses, this went global in such a destructive way that many countries have responded the same way.  Encouraging social distancing, closing non-essential businesses, and enforcing loc…
What to Expect from the World Bank and IMF What to Expect from the World Bank and IMF Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 13, 2020 Rating: 5
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Sources of Imbalance and the Pushback Against New Divergence

February 22, 2020
The US dollar's surge alongside gold has eclipsed the equity market rally as the key development in the capital markets.   Even the traditional seemingly safe-haven yen was no match for the greenback.  The dollar appeared to have been rolling over in Q4 19, as the sentiment surveys in Europe improved, Japanese officials seemingly thought the e…
Sources of Imbalance and the Pushback Against New Divergence Sources of Imbalance and the Pushback Against New Divergence Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 22, 2020 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Measuring Cost of Extend and Pretend

April 26, 2016
There is a debate.  On one hand is Summers, who argues that modern economies have entered an era of secular stagnation.  Full utilization of the factors of production and particularly capital and labor is not possible without stimulating aggregate demand in a way that facilitates bubbles.  The broad strokes of the argument can be found implicitly …
Great Graphic: Measuring Cost of Extend and Pretend Great Graphic: Measuring Cost of Extend and Pretend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 26, 2016 Rating: 5
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Forbearance: Under Appreciated, but Not Forgotten

January 14, 2014
The major economies are recovering, but their debt burden remains substantial.  The regulatory regime for banks has tightened.  Many economists, including Rogoff and Reinhart, in a paper at the end of last year, warned that the high income countries may still have to adopt policies that have been more common in developing countries, like debt rest…
Forbearance: Under Appreciated, but Not Forgotten Forbearance: Under Appreciated, but Not Forgotten Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 14, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US Debt Per Capita for Past Half Century

October 19, 2013
This Great Graphic will likely surprise many.  Work by Giovanni Salzano at Bloomberg Businessweek, drew on US Treasury data  to show the changes in the debt per capita under different presidential administrations, since 1960. The data is adjusted for inflation and displayed in 2013 dollars.  
Before Obama's second term is up, debt per capita …
Great Graphic: US Debt Per Capita for Past Half Century Great Graphic: US Debt Per Capita for Past Half Century Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 19, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US Deleveraging, Europe Still Leveraging?

September 24, 2013
This Great Graphic was posted on Business Insider by Sam Lo, who got it from Neil McLeish, a fixed income analyst at Morgan Stanley.  It depicts total debt (household, financial firms, corporates and government, divided by GDP).  Most of the chart (yellow line) tracks the US, though more recent European date is included (green line).  
The rising…
Great Graphic: US Deleveraging, Europe Still Leveraging? Great Graphic: US Deleveraging, Europe Still Leveraging? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 24, 2013 Rating: 5
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A European Camel is a Horse Made in Committee

June 27, 2013
European agreements seem to be always compromise formations.  The agreement struck several hours ago on the handling of failing banks is no exception to this generalization.  
On one side, that included German, the Netherlands and Finland wanted clear uniform rules that would allow investors and creditors to understand a transparent process.  On …
A European Camel is a Horse Made in Committee A European Camel is a Horse Made in Committee Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 27, 2013 Rating: 5
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Bad Loans Continue to Rise in Spain and Italy

June 18, 2013
Spain and Italy reported today that the share of bad loans have continued to rise. There is nothing to suggest that this is the peak. In fact, further deterioration is likely.
Bad loans at Spanish banks rose to 10.87% in April from 10.47% in March and 8.73% in April 2012. These doubtful credits rose to 167.1 bln euros. Spain's problem s…
Bad Loans Continue to Rise in Spain and Italy Bad Loans Continue to Rise in Spain and Italy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 18, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Household Debt in Canada--Carney's Legacy?

June 08, 2013
We get it. According to the UK Tory-led government the best person in the world to head up the Bank of England is Canada's central bank governor Carney. He takes the reins the beginning of next month. We have suggested he is leaving Canada not a moment too early.
Much of Canada's economic and financial success owes little to Carney. T…
Great Graphic: Household Debt in Canada--Carney's Legacy? Great Graphic: Household Debt in Canada--Carney's Legacy? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 08, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Household Debt/Income

April 15, 2013
This Great Graphic was distributed on twitter by Kate Mackenzie (@kmac)and she credits Ben Rabidoux at The Economic Analyst blog, who in turn, attributes the calculations to JP Morgan.  
It shows the debt/income ratios for households in a select number of countries. As we have noted,  Canada's has the dubious honor of the not just being at the…
Great Graphic: Household Debt/Income Great Graphic: Household Debt/Income Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 15, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Non-Performing Loans in the EU

April 15, 2013
This Great Graphic comes from a post on Vox by Nadege Jassaud and Heiko Hesse. It compares the non-performing loans as a percentage of total EU loans for a select number of countries. The read line is was the average NPL in December 2007 and the blue bar is the average at the end of H1 12.

Clearly, most countries' banks have experienced an …
Great Graphic: Non-Performing Loans in the EU Great Graphic: Non-Performing Loans in the EU Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 15, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt

April 14, 2013
This Great Graphic comes the the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook. For a selected group of countries, it shows the bank holdings of government debt in Q1 2006 (pre-crisis) and Q3 2012 as a percentage of overall bank assets.

There are several countries included where sovereign holdings in Q3 12 are a smaller part of bank assets than in Q1 …
Great Graphic: Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt Great Graphic: Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 14, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Most Important Chart to Understand the Political Economy

April 10, 2013
This Great Graphic was on the Washington Post's Wonkblog.  It shows the three key sources of income for the middle 20% of American households.  
Cash wages have fared the worst and are actually lower now in real terms (adjusted for inflation) than in 1979.  
Fringe benefits, the red line, most notably include health insurance and deferred com…
Great Graphic: The Most Important Chart to Understand the Political Economy Great Graphic: The Most Important Chart to Understand the Political Economy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 10, 2013 Rating: 5
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European Governments' Unpaid Bills

April 09, 2013
Over the past weekend, Italy's caretaker cabinet formally approved plans to begin paying its overdue bills to domestic suppliers and service providers.  Its official arrears have aggravated underlying problems, such as access to credit by small and medium size businesses, who are the main creditors.  The problems of the SMEs has also contribut…
European Governments' Unpaid Bills European Governments' Unpaid Bills Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 09, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: British Debt over the Centuries

April 08, 2013
This Great Graphic was in the UK's Guardian newspaper and brought to our attention by Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns.  It shows UK national debt as a percentage of GDP since the late 1600s.   That data itself is drawn from both government data and the work of Reinhart and Rugoff.  
A few things strike us about the chart.  First, the UK …
Great Graphic: British Debt over the Centuries Great Graphic: British Debt over the Centuries Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 08, 2013 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Private Debt to GDP Ratios

March 24, 2013
This Great Graphic comes from Gavyn Davies at the Financial Times, who used World Bank data. 
When the European debt crisis began, the conventional narrative was that key problem was that many countries went on a spending spree, induced by the low interest rates that monetary union offered.  
Yet this seemed to only really apply to Greece.  That …
Great Graphic: Private Debt to GDP Ratios Great Graphic: Private Debt to GDP Ratios Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 24, 2013 Rating: 5
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The Evolving Cyprus Story

March 18, 2013
Here are links to posts of our coverage of the evolving Cyprus story.
Cyprus: The Dog that Did Not Bite:  Provides an overview of Cyprus from mid-Dec 2012 and notes that although Eurogroup head Juncker warned that Cyprus was more worrisome than Greece, the market did not seem to give it much thought. 
Why Cyprus is Important:  In this post from ea…
The Evolving Cyprus Story The Evolving Cyprus Story Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 18, 2013 Rating: 5
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