Results for Yield Curve
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The Yield-Curve Strawman and the Week Ahead

April 02, 2022
The US 2-10-year yield curve inverted last week, unleashing an avalanche of commentary about the significance. Simply put, market participants do not believe that the inversion is necessarily a harbinger of a recession, outside of perhaps a few headline writers. Some observers set up a simple strawman and proceeded to knock it down. They do not re…
The Yield-Curve Strawman and the Week Ahead The Yield-Curve Strawman and the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2022 Rating: 5
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BOJ Steps-Up its Efforts, US 2-10 Curve steepens, and the Dollar Softens

March 30, 2022
Overview:  A pullback in US yields yesterday and the Bank of Japan's stepped-up efforts to defend the Yield Curve Control policy helped extend the yen's recovery.  This spurred profit-taking on Japanese stocks, where the Nikkei had rallied around 11% over the past two weeks.  Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan led the regional advance.  However,…
BOJ Steps-Up its Efforts, US 2-10 Curve steepens, and the Dollar Softens BOJ Steps-Up its Efforts, US 2-10 Curve steepens, and the Dollar Softens Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 30, 2022 Rating: 5
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Macro Themes and Price Action

February 19, 2022
(Due an extended business trip, this weekend’s commentary has been consolidated into one note)There are a few main themes in driving the foreign exchange market that may be useful noting as we begin the second half of Q1.  The two overarching considerations are steady US warnings of a pending Russian invasion of Ukraine and adjustment of interest …
Macro Themes and Price Action Macro Themes and Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 19, 2022 Rating: 5
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Animal Spirits Lick Wounds

August 15, 2019
Overview:  It took some time for investors to recognize that the scaling back of US tariff plans was not part of a de-escalation agreement. There was an explicit acknowledgment by US Commerce Secretary Ross that there was no quid pro quo. The US tariff split was more about the US than an overture to China.  In fact, as China did in September whe…
Animal Spirits Lick Wounds Animal Spirits Lick Wounds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 15, 2019 Rating: 5
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Beware of Linear Thinking about the Yield Curve

July 10, 2018
The seemingly arcane issue of the shape of the US yield curve has percolated into a cause celebre.  The difference between the US two-year yield and 10-year yield has been trending down for several years.  The last important peak was in late 2013 near 265 basis points.  It has been straddling 30 bp in recent days.   An inverse curve, where the two…
Beware of Linear Thinking about the Yield Curve Beware of Linear Thinking about the Yield Curve Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 10, 2018 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Bloomberg Double Feature--BOE Meeting and the Yield Curve

February 07, 2018
The Bank of England meets tomorrow.  Although no one expects a move, it has little to do with the recent market volatility.  The FTSE 100 is poised to snap a six-day 7%+ slide.  The FTSE 250 fell for seven consecutive sessions through yesterday, shedding 5.75% in the process.  
The UK's 2-year yield slipped about seven basis points from last we…
Cool Video: Bloomberg Double Feature--BOE Meeting and the Yield Curve Cool Video:  Bloomberg Double Feature--BOE Meeting and the Yield Curve Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 07, 2018 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US Curve and the Euro

May 30, 2017
This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg.  It shows two times series.  The yellow line and the left-hand scale show the euro's exchange rate against the dollar for the past year.  The white line depicts the spread between the US two-year and 10-year yield. 
I show the curve this way to be more intuitive with the euro rather than the 10-2 yr …
Great Graphic: US Curve and the Euro Great Graphic:  US Curve and the Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 30, 2017 Rating: 5
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