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The Return of Spheres of Influence

January 27, 2020
Traditionally, international relations were driven by what is called spheres of influence.  European and Japanese governments divided Asia and Africa among them. The spheres were often political concessions or the result of direct force,   War was often the price to be paid for increasing one's sphere.  Though simplistically expressed here to …
The Return of Spheres of Influence The Return of Spheres of Influence Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2020 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bull Case Intact: It is All About the Perspective

July 19, 2016
Our underlying constructive outlook for the US dollar remains intact.  It is broadly based on the divergence between the US and most other major economies.   The US acted early and aggressively to counter the Great Financial Crisis.  Unorthodox policies, such as quantitative easing,  were adopted years before the ECB and BOJ.   This has produced d…
Dollar Bull Case Intact: It is All About the Perspective Dollar Bull Case Intact: It is All About the Perspective Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 19, 2016 Rating: 5
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Sterling Slips and Aussie Pops as Investors Await Fresh Insight into Fed Trajectory Sterling Slips and Aussie Pops as Investors Await Fresh Insight into Fed Trajectory Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2016 Rating: 5
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The Dollar in the Week Ahead

May 29, 2016
The US dollar bottomed against nearly all the major currencies on May 3. The hawkish April FOMC minutes that began swaying opinion about the prospects for a summer rate hike were not published until two weeks later, and the confirmation by NY Fed President Dudley was not until May 19. 
Nevertheless, the shift in expectations for a resumption of the…
The Dollar in the Week Ahead The Dollar in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Set to Snap Three-Month Decline

May 28, 2016
The US dollar was mostly firmer over the past week.   There were two exceptions among the major currencies:  Sterling and the Canadian dollar.

Many linked sterling's outperformance (+0.8%) to a growing sense that the UK will vote to remain in the EU, despite angst reflected in the elevated cost of insurance (one-month options).  The Canadian d…
Dollar Set to Snap Three-Month Decline Dollar Set to Snap Three-Month Decline Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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First Skirmishes in Long Battle

May 27, 2016
For various reasons, well beyond the scope of this short note, China has amassed huge industrial capacity, well beyond its ability to absorb.  In part, that is one of the challenges that the "One Belt One Road" addresses.  Export the spare capacity by building infrastructure,networking east and central Asia (included parts of the former …
First Skirmishes in Long Battle First Skirmishes in Long Battle Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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